Trade Deals and Tensions: Scottish Farmers Sound the Alarm
Scottish farmers are raising red flags over the growing influx of imported meat under UK trade deals, warning of market instability unless homegrown production is properly supported.
Imports Rising, Confidence Falling
Scottish livestock producers are growing uneasy about a wave of imported meat entering the UK market as a result of post-Brexit trade deals. While international agreements with countries like Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil are meant to open doors for export growth, Scottish farmers worry they may instead be opening a back door for cheaper, lower-standard imports that could destabilise the home industry.
Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) has expressed concern over the "creepage" of imports. With Scotland’s own cattle numbers dwindling, the risk of being outcompeted on home turf looms large.
A Welcome to Exports—But With Caution
Sarah Millar, Chief Executive of QMS, says the industry isn’t anti-trade. In fact, she sees huge opportunity—particularly in the US, where a beef shortage due to drought could create a demand for Scottish meat.
However, there’s a catch: Scotland needs more cattle. QMS modeling suggests that an extra 79,000 cows will be required by 2030 to replace imports with domestic beef. That’s a tall order, especially with herd sizes shrinking in recent years.
“We welcome two-way trade, but it must be fair and equitable,” Millar emphasises.
Free Trade Boom: Who Really Wins?
Australia was first to ink a deal post-Brexit, followed by agreements with around 70 countries. Critics say UK negotiators gave away too much, too quickly. Farmers worry these agreements prioritize volume over values—specifically, the high production and animal welfare standards followed by Scottish farms.
And although these deals can open doors abroad, the domestic competition from cheap imports poses a real threat to profitability and sustainability.
Hope from the Highlands: Whisky and Barley on the Rise
It’s not all doom and gloom. The recent India trade deal slashed tariffs on Scotch whisky, potentially boosting exports by £1 billion over five years and creating 1,200 jobs. That’s a big win for both the whisky industry and the barley farmers who supply it.
Farmer Neil White, based near Duns, says he’s ready to ramp up production if the demand—and the premium—is there.
“If the market's right, we can grow more. Barley’s local, cheap to grow, and tied to a prestigious product,” he explains.
EU Market: Still King of the Hill
While new trade deals dominate headlines, Europe remains Scotland’s most crucial export market. Farmers want a smoother relationship with the EU to recover losses in key sectors like seed potatoes, which have taken a £75 million hit since Brexit.
The UK-EU trade reset may ease border red tape, but NFU Scotland warns about aligning with EU rules without having a say in shaping them.
Level Playing Field or Slippery Slope?
Farmers stress one golden rule: Imports must meet the same standards as UK produce. That includes holding firm against hormone-treated beef from the US. Anything less would undercut the values and safety of Scotland’s premium meat sector.
As Jonnie Hall from NFU Scotland puts it:
“We’re doing a bit of crystal ball gazing. We need clarity and commitment to fair, standards-based trade.”
Final Thoughts: Opportunity or Overreach?
The story of Scottish farming right now is one of potential—with peril on the side. The future could bring booming exports and revived rural economies, or it could see local producers undercut and outpaced.
Getting this balance right won’t just impact farmers—it will shape the future of Scotland’s food identity on the world stage.