Germany’s Meat Industry: A Fragile Recovery During the New Challenges

Germany’s meat industry, long in decline, saw a small but notable increase in production in 2024. However, just as optimism started to build, a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in early 2024 cast a shadow over these gains, reigniting concerns about the sector's future. This article explores the trajectory of Germany’s meat industry, the factors behind the recent production rise, and the renewed threats that could disrupt progress.

The Long Decline: 2016-2023

For seven consecutive years, Germany’s meat production declined, reaching just 6.8 million tonnes in 2023, a stark drop from the 8.4 million tonnes produced in 2016. This downturn was driven by multiple factors which we already talked about:

Regulatory Pressure: Germany introduced stricter animal welfare laws, increasing costs for farmers and processors.
Economic Struggles: Rising feed, labor, and energy prices squeezed profit margins for meat producers.
Disease Impact: The African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak devastated pork production, restricting exports to major markets like China.
Shifting Consumer Preferences: More Germans are adopting plant-based diets or reducing meat consumption for health and environmental reasons.

A Modest Rebound in 2024

Despite these challenges, Germany’s meat production rose by 1.4% in 2024, marking its first increase since 2016. While still far below historical levels, this growth was largely driven by an increase in pork and poultry production:

Pork production: Up 1.9% to 4.3 million tonnes.
Beef production: Increased 1.2% to 1 million tonnes.
Poultry production: Saw a smaller rise to 1.6 million tonnes.

The total number of animals slaughtered in Germany reached 48.7 million, with pig slaughter increasing by 1.2%. However, a key shift occurred in import dynamics—while domestically raised pigs increased, imported pig slaughter dropped by 9.2%.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease: A Renewed Threat

Just as the industry was showing signs of recovery, a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak at the beginning of 2025 dealt another blow. This highly contagious virus affects cloven-hoofed animals such as cattle, pigs, and sheep, posing a significant risk to meat production.

Export Restrictions: Some countries may impose bans on German meat exports, similar to what happened with ASF.
Supply Chain Disruptions: The outbreak could lead to culling measures, affecting production capacity and prices.
Consumer Fears: Health concerns may drive more consumers away from meat, further accelerating the decline in demand.

Industry Trends and Key Challenges

Regulatory and Political Landscape

Germany has been at the forefront of implementing stricter regulations for animal welfare and environmental sustainability. Farmers face increasing pressure to upgrade their facilities to comply with new standards, leading to rising operational costs.

Rising Costs and Profitability Issues

Feed prices have surged due to geopolitical instability and climate change affecting grain production.
Energy costs remain high, further squeezing margins.
Supermarkets and discounters continue to pressure meat suppliers for lower prices, exacerbating financial strain on producers.

Consumer Behavior Shifts

Declining Meat Consumption: Per capita meat consumption has been steadily falling in Germany, with consumers opting for plant-based alternatives and flexitarian diets.

(Source of data: BMEL)

Rise of Meat Alternatives: The plant-based eating habit are growing, showing significant shifts in dietary preferences.
Demand for High-Quality Meat: While overall meat consumption is declining, demand for organic and high-welfare meat is on the rise.

Export Market Challenges

Germany’s inability to export pork to key Asian markets, especially China, due to ASF has been a major setback. Now with foot and mouth disease, the export bans are growing. In the past, exports helped balance domestic consumption declines. Without access to these markets, excess pork supplies put downward pressure on prices and profitability.

Industry Consolidation

The number of pig farmers has dropped from 17,000 in 2022 to 15,700 in 2023, showing the rapid decline of smaller producers unable to compete in an increasingly consolidated market.

Forecast and Future Outlook

Despite the slight uptick in production, long-term forecasts indicate further challenges for the German meat industry:

Meat market volume is expected to decline by 1.73% by 2028, following years of stagnation.
Meat demand in Germany expected to decline 1.72% by 2028 compared to 2023.
Meat production in Germany is expected to have a small growth rate of 0.65%, and projections see a steady but minimal increase.
Beef production is projected to drop by 3.41% by 2028, continuing its downward trend.
Pigmeta slaughtering is anticipated to a continual decrease, with a projected 5-year CAGR of -3.54%. That means: 36.26 million heads by 2028. Peak was at 59.39 million heads in 2016. It is declining since then to 45.27 million heads by 2023.

(Source of data - ReportLinker)

The processed meat industry is expected to see limited growth, with an estimated 0% CAGR from 2024 to 2028.
Halal and specialty meat segments could see moderate growth, with increasing investments in diversified meat products.

Technological advancements, new government policies, and consumer behavior shifts will play a crucial role in shaping the industry’s trajectory. Stricter sustainability requirements and potential new taxes on meat could also push more consumers toward alternatives.

What Lies Ahead?

Germany’s meat industry is at a crossroads. While the slight increase in production provides a glimmer of hope, the challenges ahead remain formidable. Stricter regulations, economic pressures, shifting consumer preferences, and disease outbreaks all pose significant risks to sustained recovery.

The industry must adapt by investing in more sustainable and welfare-compliant farming practices, diversifying export markets, and finding ways to maintain competitiveness in an evolving food landscape. Otherwise, Germany risks not only further production declines but also becoming a net importer of meat in the coming years.

Conclusion

The 2024 increase in German meat production is a notable development, but it does not yet signal a full recovery. With foot-and-mouth disease threatening livestock, ongoing financial strain, and changing consumer habits, the road ahead remains uncertain. The coming years will determine whether Germany’s meat industry can adapt and survive—or if the decline will continue despite momentary gains.

Sources: