EU Pig Meat Production Expected to Decline by 2035
The EU's pig meat production is expected to decline by 1.2 million tonnes by 2035 due to stricter regulations, changing consumer preferences, and reduced export opportunities, leading to higher prices and market adjustments.
The European Commission has projected that pig meat production in the EU will shrink by 1.2 million tonnes by 2035, decreasing at an annual rate of 0.5%. This decline is attributed to several factors, including stricter environmental policies, societal concerns about intensive farming, and fewer export opportunities.
Why is Production Declining?
One of the main reasons for the drop in pig meat production is growing awareness of environmental and animal welfare issues. Stricter regulations in some EU countries are making pig farming more challenging. Additionally, while African Swine Fever (ASF) remains present, no major outbreaks are expected, but ongoing vigilance is necessary to prevent disruptions.
Consumer Preferences Are Changing
European consumers are gradually shifting away from pig meat. Consumption per person is expected to decline by 0.4% annually, reaching around 30 kg per year by 2035. Health concerns and the relatively high fat content of pig meat compared to other proteins are influencing purchasing choices.
Impact on Exports and Imports
Exports of EU pig meat, which saw a boost in 2022, are predicted to fall by 1% annually through 2035. Countries such as China, the Philippines, and Vietnam are improving their own production capabilities, reducing their need for EU imports. On the other hand, demand for pig meat could rise in regions like the US, Australia, and parts of Africa. The UK is expected to be the EU’s largest export market, though overall UK demand may decline.
Meanwhile, imports of pig meat into the EU are expected to stay low, decreasing by 2.2% annually. The UK’s focus on domestic production and limited import growth from other regions contribute to this trend.
What About Prices?
Pig meat prices have fluctuated in recent years, with a sharp rise in 2022-2023 followed by a decline in 2024. Looking ahead, prices are expected to remain high due to increased production costs and lower supply. By 2035, prices could stabilize at around €2.2/kg, higher than past levels.
Conclusion
The EU pig meat industry is facing significant changes over the next decade, with lower production, shifting consumer preferences, and evolving trade dynamics. Farmers and exporters will need to adapt to new challenges while maintaining competitiveness in the global market.