Introduction

France, the largest grain producer in the European Union, is facing a serious issue in 2024: a significant 25% drop in its soft wheat harvest compared to the previous year. This decrease makes it one of the worst harvests in the last 40 years. The reason? Unusually heavy and persistent rainfall since autumn, which delayed planting, harmed crop development, and increased crop diseases. These factors have led to a dramatic reduction in wheat production, which could have a big impact on more than just the price of bread. It might also affect meat prices. Here’s why.

Why Wheat Matters for Meat Prices

Wheat isn’t just for making bread and pastries—it’s also a key ingredient in the feed given to livestock, like chickens, pigs, and cows. When there’s less wheat available, the price of wheat goes up. For farmers who rely on wheat to feed their animals, this means they’ll have to pay more to keep their livestock healthy and growing. If the cost of feeding animals goes up, farmers might raise the prices of meat to make up for the higher expenses.

What This Means for Meat Prices

With France's wheat harvest expected to be 25% lower than last year, the country might face a shortage of wheat. This shortage could lead to higher prices for wheat-based livestock feed. When feed costs rise, it costs more to produce meat, and this extra cost often gets passed down to consumers. So, you might see higher prices for meat, especially for products like chicken and pork that depend heavily on grain-based feed.

Effects Beyond France

France isn’t just a big producer of wheat; it’s also a major exporter, meaning it sells a lot of its wheat to other countries. If France produces less wheat, there will be less wheat available globally, which could push prices up around the world. Countries that usually buy French wheat might have to find new suppliers, which could make wheat even more expensive. This could lead to even higher costs for farmers who need wheat to feed their animals, potentially increasing meat prices on a global scale.

Looking for Alternatives

To deal with the rising cost of wheat, some farmers might look for alternative feeds. For example, maize (corn) could be an option since its production is actually up by 9% in France this year. However, switching to different feeds isn’t always easy. It can affect how well animals grow and develop, and might not be as efficient as wheat. This could lead to other challenges in meat production.

Conclusion

The significant drop in France's 2024 soft wheat harvest is a serious problem for the grain industry, but its effects could ripple out much further. As wheat supplies decrease and prices rise, the cost of feeding livestock is likely to go up, which could lead to higher meat prices for consumers. While there are alternative feed options like maize, the overall impact on the meat market could still be substantial, both in France and around the world. As these changes take effect, consumers might notice an increase in the cost of meat products.

Resources

https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/update-1-france-sees-25-drop-in-2024-soft-wheat-crop-after-relentless-rainfall/