European Pigmeat Market Update: Mid-2024 Outlook
European Pigmeat Market Update: Mid-2024 Outlook
The latest EU pigmeat (pork) market report reveals some interesting trends as we reach the midpoint of 2024.
Executive Summary
The European pigmeat market in mid-2024 is characterised by ongoing production declines, with total EU pig livestock numbers down 0.6% at the end of 2023 and slaughter numbers falling 1.3% in Q1 2024 compared to the previous year. This contraction hasn't prevented downward pressure on prices, with pig carcass prices 10.2% lower than last year and piglet prices down 6.8%. The export landscape is shifting significantly, as overall EU pork exports decreased by 8.2% in Q1 2024, driven by sharp declines in key markets like China (-21.9%) and Japan (-15.6%), though partially offset by strong growth in exports to Vietnam, the US, and the Philippines. These trends paint a picture of an industry grappling with oversupply relative to demand, particularly in export markets, suggesting that further production adjustments or a rebound in global demand may be necessary to stabilise the EU pigmeat sector in the near term.
Our Perspective
Suppliers cannot afford to rely on their existing network of buyers, however trusted or longstanding. As the report suggests, although demand is shifting, it is not going down everywhere. It is therefore of utmost importance to be able to seamlessly shift from buyers in one market to another. On Meatborsa, we connect suppliers to buyers from markets around the EU, and globally.
Production Decline Continues
Total pig livestock numbers in the EU fell by 0.6% at the end of 2023 compared to 2022, continuing a downward trend.
Pig slaughter numbers were down 1.3% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2023.
Sharp declines in larger producer countries Netherlands and Denmark, and big increased in smaller producer markets like Bulgaria and Hungary.
Prices Under Pressure
- EU pig carcass prices averaged €222.3/100kg in mid-June, down 10.2% from the same period last year.
- Piglet prices have also declined 6.8% year-over-year.
Shifting Trade Dynamics
- EU pork exports fell 8.2% in Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023, with sharp declines to China (-21.9%) and Japan (-15.6%).
- However, exports increased significantly to Vietnam (+84.7%), the US (+29.7%), and the Philippines (+16.9%).