World Meat Prices Slipped in October, and Only Chicken Held Its Ground

MeatBorsa's take

This section is our reading of the numbers, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below it.

A fall of 1.2% in a world index looks like nothing. We think it is worth a closer look, because the October move is not one market cooling. It is three markets doing three different things, and they only look like one story when they are averaged.

Pork is the soft spot, and Europe is where it is soft. The EU pig price has now fallen for several weeks in a row, and the FAO names weak EU quotations as the reason pig meat led the decline. Our reading is that this is an oversupply problem with few export outlets, not a demand collapse, which is why it does not ease quickly.

Sheep meat is a different case. Prices have come off record highs, but the FAO says they remain well above last year. We think this is mostly Australia's seasonal lamb supply arriving, not buyers walking away. A seasonal dip in a tight market is not the same thing as a change of direction.

Poultry is the one holding steady. That is notable in a month when Brazil, the world's largest chicken exporter, reported Newcastle disease. In our view, steady prices mean the market currently sees the disease as a local problem for one Brazilian state, not a threat to world supply.

What we assume, and why we could be wrong

• We assume the EU pork weakness comes from supply and limited export outlets. If EU slaughter numbers fall faster than expected, or new export demand appears, prices could stabilise sooner than we think.
• We assume the October drop in sheep meat is seasonal. If Australian supply stays heavy beyond the usual spring flush, the decline could run longer than a normal seasonal dip.
• We assume the poultry market stays calm because the Brazilian disease detections are confined to one state. If detections appear in other Brazilian states, the poultry picture could change quickly.
• We assume the FAO figure is a fair guide. The FAO itself warns that its latest meat numbers rest partly on projected prices and can be revised significantly, so the true October move could turn out larger or smaller.

What the numbers actually say

The FAO Food Price Index for October, published on 6 November 2026, put the meat price index at 125.5 points. That is 1.6 points, or 1.2%, below September, and still slightly above the level of a year earlier.

• Pig meat: lower, led by falling EU quotations. The FAO cites abundant supplies and limited export opportunities.
• Sheep meat: down again from record highs, with larger seasonal supplies in Australia and currency movements named as reasons. Prices remain well above a year ago because export availability is still tight.
• Bovine meat: eased slightly, reflecting lower Australian quotations. Brazilian quotations stayed broadly stable.
• Poultry meat: little changed, with steady demand and ample global supply. The FAO notes Newcastle disease in Santa Catarina, Brazil, first detected on 18 October, and says regionalisation is limiting trade disruption.

The European Commission's weekly pig price report, last updated on 4 November, gives the EU side of the pork story. The EU weighted average price for week 44 was 150.9 euro per 100 kg carcass weight. That is 1.9% lower than the week before, 5.9% lower than four weeks earlier and 14.4% lower than a year ago. Piglets were at 37.9 euro per head, 26.3% below last year.

The Commission's weekly beef price report, last updated on 29 October, shows a calmer picture. For week 43 the average across all EU cattle categories was 610.2 euro per 100 kg, a fall of 0.35% on the week. Cow prices are the weak point: the report shows the cow grade D O3 at 537.02 euro per 100 kg, 16.5% below a year earlier.

What we are watching next

• The FAO's December release, to see whether the October meat figure is revised and whether pig and sheep meat keep falling.
• The Commission's weekly EU pig prices, to see whether the slide of the last four weeks slows.
• Australian saleyard lamb prices, to judge whether the seasonal supply bulge is passing.
• Whether Newcastle disease is detected outside Santa Catarina.
• Questions a reader may want to ask their own suppliers: which origins their pork and lamb lots come from, and how those origins priced in October.

Sources

FAO Food Price Index, October 2026 release - FAO

EU Weekly Pig Prices, week 44 2026 - European Commission, DG AGRI Meat Market Observatory

EU Weekly Beef Carcase Prices, week 43 2026 - European Commission, DG AGRI Meat Market Observatory