Published in News
USMCA Review: What the July Deadline Means for North American Meat Trade
The trade agreement covering more than $16 billion in annual North American livestock and meat trade reaches its first six-year review on July 1 - and its future is now uncertain.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
The trade agreement that keeps North American beef, pork, and poultry moving freely across borders is facing its first major test. With a key deadline on July 1, 2026, the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is now uncertain - and the global meat industry is watching closely.
What Is USMCA and Why Does It Matter for Meat?
USMCA replaced the older NAFTA agreement in 2020 and has since governed trade among the United States, Mexico, and Canada. For the meat sector, it is one of the most important trade frameworks in the world. More than $16 billion worth of livestock and meat products cross North American borders each year under the duty-free terms the agreement provides.
The numbers behind this are significant. The US meat and poultry industry exported more than $23 billion worth of products in 2025. Of that total, Canada and Mexico together accounted for around $8 billion. Mexico alone ranks as the largest single destination for US pork, taking in roughly $2.8 billion in 2025. When US processing plants face domestic supply shortages, live cattle and hogs from Canada and Mexico help fill the gap.
Exports represent a major share of North American meat production - about 14% of US beef, 15% of US poultry, and 25% of US pork goes to foreign buyers. Canada and Mexico combined made up more than a third of all US agricultural exports in 2025, totaling over $58.6 billion.
The July 1 Deadline Explained
USMCA includes a built-in six-year joint review, and July 1, 2026 marks the first time this process is triggered. All three governments must signal whether they want to extend the agreement for another 16 years or begin a different path.
If no extension is agreed, the agreement does not collapse immediately. July 1 would instead start a longer period during which negotiations continue, but any country could exit after giving six months' written notice. In practical terms, July 1 is expected to begin a slow countdown - with formal talks likely continuing for years.
US and Mexican officials held a second round of talks in Washington on June 16 and 17, focused on agriculture and energy. A third round is scheduled for the week of July 20 in Mexico City. Canada has not been included in the formal negotiation process so far, though Canadian trade officials are meeting with US counterparts informally.
Trump's Doubts and Industry Pushback
President Donald Trump questioned the value of continuing USMCA in public remarks shortly before the Washington talks began. He said he was not looking to renew the agreement and suggested that the United States has little need for what its two trading partners offer. Trade experts note it is unclear whether these statements reflect his actual position or are a negotiating tactic aimed at extracting concessions.
The agricultural and meat industry has pushed back firmly. Michael Schumpp, senior director of international affairs at the Meat Institute, testified before the US House Agriculture Committee that USMCA is the most successful trade agreement of its kind, and that maintaining it is essential for American farmers, ranchers, and processors. He warned that allowing the agreement to weaken or collapse would create openings for competitors in the European Union, Brazil, and China to take market share that US exporters currently hold.
Nearly 160 food and agricultural organizations from across North America have called on their governments to renew and strengthen USMCA. The case they are making is not only economic - Schumpp also argued that deep integration across North American supply chains reduces US dependence on less reliable partners in other parts of the world.
Brazil and the EU Reach Their Own Agreement
On June 17, the same day US-Mexico talks were underway in Washington, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France.
The meeting focused on European restrictions affecting Brazilian goods. The two sides agreed to set up a bilateral mechanism to resolve disputes specifically related to animal products and steel trade. For Brazil, the world's largest beef exporter, smoother access to EU markets would be a meaningful development - particularly at a time when some of its traditional trade routes are being renegotiated.
The fact that both of these events happened on the same day shows how quickly the framework for global meat trade is shifting. Whether North American integration holds together or changes course under political pressure will have consequences for where beef, pork, and poultry flows in the years ahead.