US Pork's Odd Summer: Steady Supply, Soft Prices, and Mexico in the Lead

A Strange Summer for US Pork

The United States is making about as much pork as it did last year, yet hog prices are stuck below 2025 levels. Farmers call it a pricing puzzle. There is plenty of meat, but the market is not paying what it used to.

US pork production is up around 1.3% so far in 2026 compared with last year, though output has eased a little over the past four weeks. Even with steady supply, hog prices have not followed. National hog prices averaged about 97 cents per pound last week, down from roughly $1.07 a year ago.

Why Producers Are Still Making Money

Lower prices have not pushed farmers into the red. Most are still profitable, and the main reason is cheaper feed and corn rather than strong hog prices.

According to an Iowa State University model, farrow-to-finish producers have now recorded 25 months in a row of profit. That is a big change from 2023 and 2024, when losses reached as much as $50 per head in the worst months.

This year the picture looks much healthier:

Profits have ranged from about $2.60 to $52 per head
Cheap feed and corn are the main drivers, not higher hog prices
The gains have not led farmers to grow their herds

Building new barns means paying for concrete, steel, and high interest rates, so many producers are holding back on expansion.

More Pigs Without a Bigger Herd

Here is the surprising part. The US sow herd has been shrinking for years, yet the country keeps producing more pork.

The reason is productivity. Sows are having more piglets per litter, and animals are sent to slaughter at heavier weights. Barrow and gilt dressed weights averaged 211 pounds last week, up from 209 pounds a year earlier.

Weekly slaughter numbers show the same steady flow. About 2.334 million hogs were processed last week, 63,000 more than the week before, but 83,000 fewer than the same week last year. Feeder pig prices are also slipping, with 40-pound pigs averaging $67.29 per head and early weaned pigs at $49.16 per head.

What Buyers See on Wholesale Cuts

Wholesale prices have been mixed, moving with the usual seasonal pattern. The pork cutout value, a key measure of wholesale worth, slipped about 6 cents last week to an average near $100.45 and has since dropped below the $100 mark.

Individual cuts tell different stories:

Spareribs: $1.74 per pound, up from $1.65 a year ago but down from $1.96 six weeks earlier
Pork bellies: $1.93 per pound, well above $1.46 six weeks ago yet below last year's $2.13
Pork loins: $1.11 per pound, up from $1.04 six weeks ago but under last year's $1.16

The National Pork Board tracks these USDA sub-primal prices every week for retail and foodservice buyers, covering cuts such as butt, loin, ham, belly, and spareribs.

Pork Stays Cheap Next to Beef

For shoppers, pork remains a middle option, pricier than chicken but far below beef. July retail data put pork at $4.89 per pound, a little lower than $5.01 a year ago.

Beef, by contrast, jumped to $10.49 per pound from $9.69, while chicken eased to $2.01 per pound. With beef so costly, some restaurants are leaning more on pork and chicken to protect their margins.

Mexico Takes the Lead on Exports

Exports remain a big part of US pork demand, taking in roughly 20% to 30% of all pork produced. Exports so far this year are running about 4% ahead of 2025, helped by stronger sales to Japan.

The clear winner is Mexico, now the top buyer of US pork:

Mexico imported 226 million pounds of US pork in June
Japan followed with 87 million pounds
Canada took 33.4 million pounds

China is heading the other way. US shipments to China fell to 23.1 million pounds in June, down from 36.7 million a year earlier and far below the five-year average of 78.9 million pounds. Tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and plant approval problems have all cut into that trade.

What It Means for Meat Traders

For buyers and sellers, the US market sends a clear message. There is plenty of pork, prices are softer than last year, and demand is holding up thanks to exports and value-focused shoppers.

Traders watching the United States should keep an eye on:

Whether hog prices recover as production rises into the autumn
How long Mexico stays the dominant export destination
Any change in the China trade if tariff tensions ease

For now, steady supply and low prices make US pork a competitive option on the global market.