Published in Market Analysis
The World's Beef Herds Are Shrinking, but European Prices Have Barely Moved
Brazil, the US and China are all holding fewer cattle, yet EU carcass prices were almost flat in week 38 and Irish prime cattle are still about 70c/kg below last year, and our view is that Europe's calm is a lag, not a sign of loose supply.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our reading of the market, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below it.
We think European beef buyers are looking at a calm price board and drawing the wrong conclusion. The three biggest beef-producing countries, Brazil, the United States and China, are all holding fewer cattle than two years ago. European prices have not reacted yet. In our view that is a lag, not a sign that there is plenty of beef around.
Here is the tension. Globally, herds are shrinking. In Europe, week 38 carcass prices were almost unchanged, and in Ireland prime cattle are still well below last year's level. When one part of the market is short and another is not, beef usually flows toward the shortage. We expect the next few months to be about how much European product gets pulled away, or how much buyers elsewhere start to compete for it, not about a European price collapse.
For buyers, our practical advice is to treat a soft price as a chance to cover forward needs on cuts you know you will need, not as a signal to wait for a bigger discount. For sellers, we would not rush to sell forward at today's numbers if your cattle supply for early 2027 is already tight.
One more signal worth watching is the store cattle trade. Irish store prices have risen 20 to 30 cents per kilogram, and buyers on the processing side called that trade "out of kilter" with finished beef prices. Finishers are paying more for young cattle than the finished beef price currently justifies. Either the beef price catches up, or some of those finishers lose money. We lean toward the first.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
Our view rests on these assumptions about market behaviour:
- Smaller herds in Brazil, the US and China lead to fewer exportable cattle and less beef available to the rest of the world over the next few quarters.
- European slaughter volumes stay near their current level. Ireland's weekly kill has been steady at about 32,000 head, and we assume other European supply is similarly stable.
- Buyers outside Europe who are short of beef will pay more to secure it, which tightens the pool that European importers draw from.
- Soft European demand does not worsen. Today's calm depends on buyers staying cautious, not on a sudden pull-back.
We could be wrong in several ways. If European consumer demand weakens further, prices could drift lower even with tight global supply. If drought eases and producers hold back more heifers than expected, supply could recover later than we assume. And if the shortage elsewhere is met by other suppliers, Europe may never feel much pull at all. The honest range is wide, so we would size any position accordingly.
What the numbers actually say
The facts below come from the sources listed at the end of this post.
Al Jazeera reported on 28 September that Brazil's cattle herd stood at 177.4 million head in 2026, down about 8% from 192.5 million in 2024. China's herd was 94 million in January 2026, down 14% from 105 million in January 2024. The United States held 86.2 million cattle and calves in January 2026. Brazil, the US and China together supply more than half of the world's beef. The same report cited a forecast that Brazilian production will fall 2% and exports 5% in 2026, and that US beef production will be 4% lower than in 2025.
Key figures:
- European Commission data, reported by IndexBox for week 38 (14 to 20 September 2026): the EU average for the combined U, R and O classes was about €625.85 per 100 kg carcass weight, up just €0.22.
- For bullocks in the same classes, the price was about €674.17 per 100 kg, up 0.5% on the week.
- Agriland reported on 28 September that Irish factory quotes for prime cattle rose by up to 20c/kg, with heifers at €6.60 to €6.75/kg and steers at €6.50 to €6.70/kg.
- Agriland reported on 21 September that Irish prime cattle prices were about 70c/kg below September 2025, and weekly kill had held near 32,000 head for five weeks.
Agriland also noted that procurement teams still describe the wider beef trade as soft, even though demand picked up that week.
What we are watching next
Three things will tell us whether the lag is closing: weekly EU carcass prices from the European Commission, whether Irish factory quotes keep climbing toward €7.00/kg all-in, and any change in Brazilian export volumes. We will also keep an eye on how Irish store cattle prices behave once the autumn buying rush slows.
Sources
Cattle to feed: Why a global meat crisis is looming - Al Jazeera
Factory quotes: Prime cattle price offers lift by 20c/kg in cases - Agriland
Factory quotes: Beef trade firm but warning store trade 'out of kilter' - Agriland
EU Beef Prices Week 38 2026: Category Averages and Member-State Data - IndexBox