Published in Market Analysis
The Summer Bounce in European Pork Is Over
German and Dutch pig prices were cut by 15 cents in the same week the EU average fell 1.9%, and our view is that the heat-driven rebound has run out while pig supply is growing again.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our reading of the market, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below it.
We think the summer rebound in European pig prices is finished. Hot weather slowed pig growth in July and August and held animals back from the slaughterhouse. Now those pigs are arriving, and the market has more pork than buyers want at the current price. The 15 cent cut in Germany and the identical cuts in the Netherlands look to us like the end of that delay, not a one-week blip.
For a buyer in Europe, this means less urgency. We would not rush to fix large volumes at today's prices, because the recent direction is down and the yearly lows are close. For a seller, the message is the opposite: expect buyers to push back on any price that assumes the summer firmness continues, and expect competition from plants that need to move more animals each week.
The piglet price is the part we would watch most closely. It is falling faster than the pig price, which tells us that the people who breed and rear pigs are not being paid well for the next batch. Low piglet prices do not fix an oversupplied market this month, but they are how a market slowly corrects itself over the following year.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
- We assume the pigs delayed by the heat are now reaching slaughter weight, so weekly supply stays higher than it was in late summer. If the heat delay turns out to be smaller than we think, supply would ease sooner and prices would find a floor faster.
- We assume demand for pork in Europe stays subdued at current price levels. If retail or food service buying picks up, the market could absorb the extra pigs without further cuts.
- We assume export demand does not change enough to absorb the extra volume. If a large buyer increases its purchases of European pork, the surplus would be smaller than we expect.
- We assume the current lows are retested, not broken. If plants slow their kill rates to protect prices, the fall could stop earlier.
What the numbers actually say
The European Commission's pigmeat market summary of 17 September showed a small rise in week 37. The average carcass price for classes S and E was €169.7 per 100 kg, up 0.4% on the week. The Commission's summary puts that level about 16% below the same period last year.
One week later the direction had changed. IndexBox, reporting on the Commission's weekly price data for week 38, gave an EU average of €166.2 per 100 kg, down 1.9% on the week and 15.5% lower than a year earlier. Piglet prices stood at €43.7 per head, down 1.6% on the week and 26.9% below last year.
The Dutch farm publication Nieuwe Oogst reported on 17 September that German slaughterhouses cut their price by 15 cents to €1.45 per kg carcass weight. Dutch plants followed with the same cut. Vion moved to €1.21 per kg, Van Rooi to €1.18, Westfort to €1.24 and Compaxo to €1.25. The publication wrote that the European market is saturated with pork and that the supply of pigs is growing again after the summer decline. It added that Dutch prices are now only 3 cents above their yearly lows, and that Vion cut its piglet quotation by €5 to €26.50.
Key numbers:
- EU average carcass price, classes S and E, week 38: €166.2 per 100 kg (IndexBox, citing the Commission weekly report), 15.5% below last year.
- EU piglet price, week 38: €43.7 per head, 26.9% below last year.
- Germany, mid-September: €1.45 per kg carcass weight after a 15 cent cut (Nieuwe Oogst).
- EU pig slaughter, January to May 2026: up 1.8% in tonnes on the year (European Commission).
On the supply side, the Commission reported that the EU pig herd stood at 131.45 million head in December 2025, down 0.5% on the year. The largest herds are in Spain, Germany, France and Poland. In the first five months of 2026 the EU exported 1.84 million tonnes of pigmeat, with China taking 21.0% and the United Kingdom 18.2%.
What we are watching next
We are watching three things over the coming weeks. First, whether German and Dutch quotations stabilise at the new level or are cut again. Second, whether the piglet price keeps falling faster than the pig price. Third, whether the weekly Commission data shows the S and E average moving below the levels seen earlier this year.
Sources
EU Pigmeat Market Situation, 17 September 2026 - European Commission, DG AGRI
EU Pig Prices Fall in Week 38 of 2026: Carcass and Piglet Prices Decline - IndexBox
Varkensprijzen dalen: Nederlandse slachterijen volgen Duitsland - Nieuwe Oogst