The German Christmas Miracle: A Festive Defiance of Gravity

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The German Christmas Miracle: A Festive Defiance of Gravity

The German VEZG pork price displays festive resilience, holding at €1.60 despite the Dutch correction. The spread hits a historic €0.30.

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Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer

🚨 BREAKING: Germany Stands as an Island of Stability

In an impressive display of festive resilience, the German slaughter pig market has created a holiday safe haven, holding firm while neighbouring markets adjust to the winter chill.

Despite the Dutch market correcting to €1.30, the German benchmark (VEZG) maintained its position at €1.60 yesterday (Wednesday, 10 Dec), ensuring producers in the Federal Republic enjoy a very merry spread indeed.

The "Spread of the Season"

We are witnessing a remarkable market divergence that offers a fascinating case study in regional dynamics.

Analysis: Strategic Optimism vs. Market Realism

The German Reality: Major German processors appear to be betting on the Christmas spirit. By holding the price at €1.60, they are paying a premium of roughly €28 per pig compared to their Dutch neighbours.

  • Theory A: This is a strategic move to secure every available pig for the critical pre-Christmas production run (sausages and roasts wait for no one).

  • Theory B: A gesture of stability to the farming sector to close out the year on a high note.

The Dutch Reality: Leading processors in the Netherlands have reacted swiftly to the external pressures (Spanish ASF, export hurdles), pricing in the new inventory reality immediately.

The "Holiday Bonus" Opportunity

For market participants, this creates a unique window of opportunity.

  • If you are a German Seller: Celebrate. You are currently capturing a premium that defies the broader European trend. This €1.60 is essentially a holiday bonus; it is an excellent time to market available stock before the new year resets the board.

  • If you are a Buyer: Look West. The arbitrage window is wide open. With Dutch carcasses trading at a €1.30 basis, the value proposition across the border is compelling.

The January Reality Check

While Germany is currently defying gravity, market forces are patient. A €0.30 premium is a heavy lift to maintain long-term without attracting significant import volumes.

For now, enjoy the miracle. Germany has successfully kept the lights on and the prices up for the festive season. The convergence will likely come, but for this week, the price holds.

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