Screwworm Reaches Texas, Piling More Pressure on the US Beef Industry

A Parasite Returns After Decades Away

The New World screwworm is a parasitic fly that lays its eggs in open wounds on warm-blooded animals, including cattle, other livestock, and wildlife. When the larvae hatch, they feed on the host's living tissue. An infected animal can be killed within days if left untreated.

The screwworm was eliminated from the United States by the 1980s through a government programme that released sterile male flies. Its return is linked to a spreading outbreak south of the border. Mexico had more than 1,800 active screwworm cases as of mid-May 2026, with infections confirmed in the states of Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, and Coahuila, all directly bordering Texas.

The US Department of Agriculture confirmed cases in Texas cattle in June 2026. US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has said the outbreak could continue for several more months.

A Cattle Herd Already at Historic Lows

The timing could hardly be worse. The US cattle herd stood at 86.2 million head at the start of 2026 - the lowest number since 1951. Years of severe drought, major wildfires, and trade disruptions have prevented ranchers from rebuilding their herds.

Texas is the most important beef-producing state in the country. The Texas Panhandle region alone produces 85% of the state's beef and contributes around $6 billion a year to the regional economy. A large-scale screwworm outbreak there would be a serious blow to an industry already struggling to recover.

Record Beef Prices, but Ranchers Are Not Profiting

Tight cattle supply has pushed beef prices to record levels. According to the Consumer Price Index for May 2026, US beef prices rose 12.9% over the previous year. In April 2026, the average retail price for beef reached a record $9.64 per pound.

Despite these high prices, many ranchers say their profits are not keeping pace. The cost of feed, fuel, fertiliser, and veterinary services has also risen sharply. As one Texas rancher put it, virtually everything a rancher touches has gone up in cost.

Meat packers are under even more pressure. Caviness Beef Packers, a Texas-based family company that has been running since 1962, reported that the price of a live steer has risen 50% since 2021. The company is currently running at only 75-80% of capacity because of the shortage of cattle, and says it is selling beef at a loss. The industry's biggest players are in the same situation. JBS announced the closure of a plant in Pennsylvania in June 2026. Tyson Foods shut a beef processing facility in Nebraska in January 2026, cutting 3,200 jobs.

How Screwworm Disrupts Everyday Ranch Work

The screwworm does not only kill cattle. It also complicates routine farm work. Activities like branding, castration, and dehorning all create open wounds that can attract screwworm flies to lay their eggs. As a result, many ranchers are delaying or scaling back these tasks, which in turn slows herd growth at a time when the industry badly needs it.

Ranchers are also spending more time inspecting their herds for early signs of infection. This requires more labour, at a time when many operations are already short-staffed.

The USDA is currently running sterile fly release facilities in Texas and in northern Mexico to contain the spread. However, a new fly production facility that would release 100 million sterile flies per week is not expected to be operational until spring 2027. A supporting sterile fly facility will not be completed until November 2027.

Ripple Effects Down the Supply Chain

The screwworm threat is already affecting more than just ranches. Emily Williams Knight, president of the Texas Restaurant Association, said that before confirmed screwworm cases appeared, the restaurant industry had been expecting some relief from high beef prices by 2028. Now, she says, that timeline is uncertain.

Restaurant owners selling beef-heavy menus have seen their margins collapse. One Austin-based barbecue restaurant owner reported that a 10-pound slab of brisket, which cost about $54 at source, now earns him a profit margin of around 2% - down from 4-5% the year before. He said he has already lost about 6% of his customers due to price increases.

The USDA halted live cattle imports from Mexico in July 2025 as a precaution against screwworm spreading northward. This led to the closure of a large Texas feedlot that had sourced most of its cattle from Mexico. US beef exports also fell by approximately 17% industry-wide in 2026, reducing the ability of packers to recover full value from each animal.

What This Means for Global Beef Buyers

The United States is one of the world's largest beef producers and exporters. Any further shrinkage in the US cattle herd - or delay in herd recovery - will keep global beef supply under pressure. Experts say herd expansion is unlikely to begin before 2028 at the earliest, meaning elevated prices are expected to continue.

Buyers who source beef from the US should factor in continued tight supply and the possibility of further price increases if the screwworm outbreak spreads deeper into Texas. Alternative sourcing from Brazil, Australia, and other major exporters may become more important for buyers looking to manage supply chain risk.