Romania's Live Sheep Trade Fell to Zero, and Brussels Just Approved a Restart

MeatBorsa's take

This is our reading of what a regulatory story means for the market, not a forecast of what Brussels or Bucharest will do next. The confirmed figures are below.

Romania's live sheep and goat trade did not slow down this year, it stopped completely. Exports that ran at more than a million head a year as recently as 2023 dropped to zero after two animal diseases spread through the country's flocks. The European Commission has now approved a plan to start reopening that trade, zone by zone, but the plan is not a light switch. It is a slow, county-by-county process tied to vaccination and to each importing country's own approval.

For meat buyers, the more interesting question is not when live exports resume. It is what happens to the animals in the meantime. Carcasses and dairy products were never part of the ban, so that channel kept moving. But live animals that used to leave Romania for the Middle East and North Africa now have nowhere to go outside the EU. Shepherds either hold onto them, which gets expensive fast, or push them toward domestic and EU slaughter instead.

We think the second option is more likely, and if it happens at scale, it means more sheep meat moving through Southeast European and EU processing plants over the coming months, not less, even while the live trade itself stays largely shut. That is a supply story for buyers of lamb and mutton in the region, separate from whatever happens with the reopening timeline.

What we assume, and why we could be wrong

• We assume shepherds cannot hold unsold animals indefinitely. Feed costs and flock management make it expensive to wait, so animals that cannot be exported live tend to move into domestic slaughter instead. If farmers choose to shrink their flocks rather than sell into a weaker market, supply could tighten instead of grow.
• We assume the phased reopening stays narrow at first. Only two counties, Tulcea and Constanța, qualify for the full vaccination needed to reach the six countries that have already agreed to take vaccinated animals. If disease spreads to new counties, that list of eligible export zones shrinks further before it grows.
• We assume the disease stays contained to the current outbreak zones. A new detection elsewhere in Romania, or in one of the other affected countries, would extend restrictions rather than ease them.

What happened

The European Commission approved Romania's recovery plan on 17 September 2026, clearing the way for a phased return of live sheep and goat exports after outbreaks of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and sheep and goat pox forced the country's exports to zero, down from roughly 1.22 million head in 2023, according to a Council of the European Union note dated 25 September. The same document puts Romania's losses at more than €150 million and records over 235,000 animals culled in the country.

The plan pairs 1.3 million free EU-supplied vaccine doses with a two-tier scheme: full vaccination against both diseases in the high-risk counties of Tulcea and Constanța, and vaccination against sheep and goat pox only in the rest of the country, which keeps its PPR-free status. Romania has already lined up agreements with six destination countries, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Israel and Libya, for animals vaccinated under the new scheme, with seven more deals reportedly in negotiation.

The wider region is under similar pressure. The same Council note lists Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus and Greece among countries affected by PPR, sheep and goat pox, or foot-and-mouth disease, with more than 20 million sheep and goats across the region under movement or marketing restrictions. Greece alone has culled over 600,000 animals, and Cyprus estimates losses of more than €40 million from its foot-and-mouth response.

The economic strain has spilled into the streets. On 15 September, around 2,000 shepherds and farmers protested in Bucharest against the export ban, which runs through 31 December 2026. Clashes with police led to 26 detentions and injuries on both sides, according to Al Jazeera's reporting.

Key figures:

• Romania's live sheep and goat exports: about 1.22 million head in 2023, zero in 2026
• Romanian losses so far: more than €150 million; over 235,000 animals culled
• Vaccine support: 1.3 million free doses from the EU, split between a full PPR and pox scheme in two counties and a pox-only scheme elsewhere

What we are watching next

We are watching how fast Romanian and regional slaughterhouses can absorb sheep that would otherwise have left the EU alive, since that determines whether this becomes a short-term supply bump or a longer squeeze as flocks shrink. We are also watching whether any of the six already-agreed destination countries actually start receiving vaccinated animals before the ban's 31 December end date, since that would be the first real test of the new scheme rather than just an approval on paper.

Sources

Council of the European Union - Note on the sheep and goat sector situation

Agroberichten Buitenland - Romania's Action Plan to address the sheep and goat sector crisis

Radio Romania International - Steps towards resuming sheep and goat exports

Al Jazeera - Romanian shepherds and farmers clash with police