Poland Pig Sector Stabilizes, Brazil Beef Booms, and Spanish Pork Prices Crash.

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Poland Pig Sector Stabilizes, Brazil Beef Booms, and Spanish Pork Prices Crash.

Poland's pig industry finds stability, Brazil's beef exports smash records, and Spanish pork prices hit a yearly low after 16 weeks of decline.

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Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer

Eastern EU Market: Poland's Pig Sector Shows Signs of Stabilization

What happened: Poland's pig industry is finally showing signs of recovery after a devastating decade of African Swine Fever (ASF), according to a report from Pigua.info on October 31, 2025. As of mid-October, only 18 farm outbreaks were recorded in 2025, a significant drop attributed to enhanced biosecurity. However, the virus remains endemic in the wild boar population, with 2,850 cases detected this year.

Why it matters: This is a crucial, hard-won stability for a key EU pork producer. The crisis has forced massive consolidation: Poland now has only 44,810 pig farms, down 8,000 from two years ago, but the average herd size has quintupled. With a €113 million EU aid package now in place, the sector is positioned for a modest recovery in 2026, though it remains limited by a critically low sow herd.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Polish Producers: The risk from wild boars remains high. Use the new EU aid for biosecurity grants (fences, disinfection) to protect your operations. Focus on quality and niche markets to compete, as rebuilding the national herd will be slow.

  • EU Processors: Do not expect Polish pork volumes to rebound quickly. The low sow numbers mean supply will remain tight. Continue to source from other EU states to ensure a stable supply of raw material.

  • Feed & Genetics Suppliers: This is an opportunity. Polish farms will be focused on rebuilding and maximizing efficiency, creating demand for high-quality genetics and feed to improve productivity.

Global Market: Brazil's October Beef Exports Smash Records

What happened: Brazil's beef exports continued to surge in October, with shipments by the fourth week (276,500 tonnes) already surpassing the entire volume exported in October 2024 (270,200 tonnes), according to data from Secex reported on October 30, 2025. The daily average of beef exports is up 25% compared to the previous year, with average prices per tonne rising 18.5%.

Why it matters: This confirms Brazil's overwhelming dominance in the global beef market, driven by robust international demand, particularly from China and the Middle East. This record-breaking performance is setting a new baseline for global beef prices and trade flows, putting sustained pressure on other major exporters like the US and Australia.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Global Beef Buyers: Brazil's supply is strong and consistent. However, with prices rising 18.5% year-on-year, be prepared for this new cost structure to hold. Do not expect significant price relief.

  • EU Producers: You cannot compete with Brazil on volume. Focus on differentiated, high-value attributes such as sustainability, welfare, and non-GMO/deforestation-free (EUDR) compliance to protect your share in the premium market.

  • Traders & Importers: The flow of Brazilian beef is strong. Secure your volumes now, as strong demand from Asia will continue to pull product away from other markets, supporting high prices.

EU Market: Spanish Pork Price "Approaching Yearly Low" After 16-Week Fall

What happened: Spain's benchmark pork price has fallen for sixteen consecutive weeks, wiping out profitability and bringing the market close to its annual low, according to an analysis from Pig333.com on October 31, 2025. The market is described as having a large surplus of pork, with prices now "clearly below cost price."

Why it matters: This is a severe downturn for the EU's largest pork producer. The price collapse is attributed to a saturated intra-Community market and weak domestic demand. The situation is forcing Spanish producers to regain competitiveness in third-country markets to clear the surplus. The price has fallen so far it is now level with Brazilian pork, a key global competitor.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Spanish Producers: The market is now below the cost of production. Focus on securing export contracts to third countries, as the EU market is saturated. The price floor is near, which should allow slaughterhouses to begin freezing product.

  • EU Pork Buyers/Processors: Spanish pork is now at its most competitive level all year. This is a key purchasing window. Expect slaughterhouses to increase freezing, which will soon stabilize prices. Secure volumes now before the market turns.

  • Global Pork Importers (non-EU): Spanish pork is now price-competitive with Brazil. Expect aggressive offers from Spanish exporters seeking to move surplus volume out of the EU. This is an opportunity to source high-quality EU pork at bottom-of-the-market prices.

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