Published in Market Analysis
Meat Prices Fell 1.1% in September, but Four Proteins Told Four Stories
The FAO Meat Price Index slipped to 127.9 points in September, level with a year ago, but poultry, pork, beef and lamb moved for very different reasons.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our own reading of the numbers. The confirmed figures follow below, so you can see where the data ends and our opinion begins.
A 1.1 percent monthly fall in the global meat price index looks like a quiet month. We do not think it was. The index ended exactly where it stood a year ago, which hides the fact that two of the four proteins moved down for reasons that are about supply, not demand.
In pork, we think the summer price rise was a supply shock and not a demand story. Heat slowed animal growth in Europe, fewer pigs reached slaughter weight, and quotations rose. Now that growth rates are back to normal, the missing volume is returning. We expect European pork sellers to be more flexible on price through the autumn, and we would not chase offers higher.
In poultry, our reading is that September shows a timing effect on top of a supply effect. Buyers brought forward purchases before the new EU import requirements took effect, then bought less afterwards, while Brazil still had plenty to sell. We think some of that front-loaded product is still working through the system. For importers, this may be a good moment to talk about contracts. For sellers of higher-value poultry into the EU, it is the hardest segment right now.
Beef and lamb were calmer, but beef was not one market. Brazilian prices rose on American demand while Australian prices fell on competition. We think buyers should treat beef origin by origin and not as one global price.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
- We assume EU pig growth rates stay normal and slaughter supply keeps up through the autumn. We could be wrong if a new disease outbreak or a cold snap removes pigs from the system quickly.
- We assume the front-loaded poultry volume clears within weeks and EU buying returns to a normal pace. We could be wrong if stocks turn out to be larger than they look, in which case price pressure lasts longer.
- We assume Brazilian poultry exporters can place extra volume in other buying regions without deep discounts. If those buyers are already well supplied, Brazilian offers could become more aggressive and spill into more markets.
What the numbers actually say
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) published its Food Price Index on 2 October 2026. The key figures for meat:
- The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 127.9 points in September.
- That is down 1.5 points, or 1.1 percent, from the revised August value.
- It is in line with the level of a year ago.
According to the FAO, the fall came from lower poultry and pig meat quotations, while bovine and ovine meat stayed broadly stable.
On poultry, the FAO says international quotations fell because of ample export supplies from Brazil and weaker import demand from the European Union. It links the weaker EU demand to antimicrobial-related import requirements that entered into force on 3 September. The effect was most visible for higher-value products and was increased by front-loading of imports before the rules applied.
On pork, the FAO says prices fell amid abundant supplies in major exporting countries. In the European Union, animal growth rates returned to normal after the summer heatwaves, which supported supply and weighed on prices.
On beef, Australian export prices fell as global competition grew. Brazilian quotations rose, supported by stronger American demand after the United States temporarily expanded its tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings on 1 September. On lamb and mutton, the FAO reports prices were on average unchanged, with firm demand supporting Oceania but lower New Zealand quotations, mostly reflecting currency moves.
What we are watching next
We will be looking at three things over the coming weeks. First, weekly EU pig and broiler quotations, to see whether the autumn softening in pork continues and whether poultry prices stabilise once front-loaded volumes are used up. Second, the October FAO release, to see if poultry and pig meat keep falling or find a floor. Third, whether Brazilian poultry exporters shift volume toward other buying regions, which would show up in destination data over the next months.
Sources
FAO Food Price Index - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FAO Food Price Index September 2026: Wheat, Maize Reach Multi-Year Highs - IndexBox