Market Pulse: Romania’s Sheep Cull, Dawn Meats’ Emissions Cut, and US Beef Prices Hit Record
Published 4 days ago in News

Market Pulse: Romania’s Sheep Cull, Dawn Meats’ Emissions Cut, and US Beef Prices Hit Record

Romania's sheep production surges from disease cull, Dawn Meats achieves major emissions cut, and US beef supply squeeze sends prices to record highs.

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Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer

Eastern Europe: Disease Outbreak Drives 206% Surge in Romanian Sheep Production

What happened: Romania’s sheep meat production has surged by 206% for the year-to-date (Jan-July 2025), according to a new European market update from the UK's Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB). This massive increase, totaling 8,000 tonnes, is not due to market growth but rather a "significant disease outbreak," which has forced producers to engage in widespread culling to control the spread.

Why it matters: This spike in production has made Romania the only major EU country to see a significant increase in sheep meat output. In contrast, key producers like Spain, France, and Ireland all saw production fall by 3-14% over the same period due to structural decline and other challenges. The sudden flood of Romanian product onto the market is a "control method" and represents a one-off supply shock rather than sustainable growth.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Romanian Farmers: The outbreak necessitates culling, which will severely impact flock sizes and future production capacity once the disease is contained. Focus must be on biosecurity and accessing any available state or EU support for culling.

  • EU Traders: Be prepared for a short-term increase in the availability of lower-cost Romanian sheep meat. This may temporarily depress prices for certain cuts, but this supply is not sustainable and will likely be followed by a sharp supply deficit from the region.

  • Processors: Processors sourcing from Romania should verify all animal health and movement certifications. The increased throughput may create temporary opportunities but also carries significant reputational and biosecurity risks.

Sustainability: Dawn Meats Achieves 63% Cut in Operational Emissions

What happened: Irish processor Dawn Meats has announced it has achieved a 63% absolute reduction in its Scope 1 and 2 (operational) emissions. The milestone, detailed in its 2025 sustainability update, was reached over a six-year period (2018-2024) and significantly outpaces its original targets. The company, which operates across 10 UK sites and 12 in Ireland, achieved this through initiatives like switching to 100% renewable electricity and investing in energy-saving upgrades.

Why it matters: This achievement demonstrates that large-scale emissions reductions in meat processing are possible without sacrificing output. By focusing on operational emissions, Dawn Meats is addressing the energy, water, and waste elements of its business it directly controls. The company also reported a 9% reduction in its more complex Scope 3 (supply chain) emissions intensity, signaling progress in its farm-level initiatives.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Meat Processors: This report sets a new benchmark for sustainability in the EU and UK. Competitors should review their own energy, water, and refrigeration policies to identify areas for similar efficiencies, as retail and foodservice customers increasingly demand verifiable emissions data.

  • Retail Buyers: Use this report as a case study for supplier engagement. Ask your own meat suppliers to provide clear data on their Scope 1 and 2 reductions and to outline their investment plans for tackling Scope 3 emissions.

  • Investors: Sustainability-linked performance is a key indicator of operational efficiency and risk management. Companies like Dawn Meats that invest heavily in their "Plan Four Zero" strategy may be better insulated from future energy shocks and carbon taxes.

Global Market: US Beef Prices Hit Record Highs as Production Tightens

What happened: US beef prices reached record highs in September, climbing 30% year-on-year as feedlot inventories continue to shrink, according to an AHDB market update. The US cattle herd is contracting, with USDA forecasts pointing to a 4% fall in beef production for 2025. This domestic supply squeeze is dramatically reshaping trade flows.

Why it matters: The world's largest beef producer is facing a supply deficit, forcing it to import more while exporting less. For the year-to-date (Jan-Jul), US beef exports have fallen 8%, driven by a massive 46% drop in shipments to China. Simultaneously, US imports have surged 28%, with volumes from Brazil (+94%) and Australia (+36%) rising sharply to fill the gap. This tightening of US supply is providing underlying support for global beef prices.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • US Buyers: Prepare for sustained high prices and tight domestic supply. Secure contracts and diversify sourcing, as imports from key partners like Brazil and Australia will be critical to meeting demand, though new tariffs on Brazilian beef may cool volumes.

  • EU Exporters: While the UK/EU has limited direct beef trade with the US, the contraction in the US market tightens global supply. This supports global prices and may create new opportunities in high-value third markets (like Japan and South Korea) where US competition is now reduced.

  • South American & Australian Exporters: This is a major opportunity to capture US market share. Producers in Brazil and Australia should work to maximize throughput for the US market, though Brazilian exporters must navigate new US tariffs implemented in August.

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