Published in Market Analysis
Market Pulse: Danish Deflation
Danish Crown quotations set record lows, with structural oversupply trapping Danish pig farmers in unprofitable territory.
Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer
Record Low Danish Crown Quotation
Yesterday, Danish Crown updated its weekly markedsnotering, or market quotation, from DKK7.10 to DKK6.90 (€0.92).
This is the lowest quotation on record, according to Danish Crown's own online records going back to 2008, perhaps the lowest ever in real terms?
Structural oversupply wipes out pig farm profits
According to a November 2025 study by Seges Innovation, the EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortatisation) profitability threshold for Danish pigs are around DKK10.17, and DKK11.85 when excluding depreciation and amortisation, i.e. EBIT only.
Taking into account an generous DKK0.60 restbetaling or supplementary payment which Danish Crown pays out to owners, takes the gross quotation back up to DKK7.50.
Even with the supplementary payment, Danish pig farmers are facing sustained unprofitable operations. However, despite the slump in prices, Danish Crown does not expect the situation to improve in the near team. From its most recent market guidance:
Overall, the European market remains burdened by a structural oversupply, and there are no signs of any meaningful improvement in the short term. Consequently, the situation continues to be serious.
Where next?
Applying classical economics does not paint a pretty picture.
Firstly, farmers are dealing with significantly worsened cashflow, which will deplete cash reserves or more likely stretch credit terms.
Secondly, demand for piglets will reduce further, continuing an ongoing trend.
Thirdly, as a final unavoidable response to structural oversupply, sow-herds will contract, with farms closing down or restructuring around smaller herds and lower long term slaughter supply.
Rays of Hope
There are very few and faint rays of hope for Danish pig farmers. However, some things are already working its way through the system:
Piglets prices are down. This reduces input costs for finishers, and as these costs work their way through, contribution margins will likely turn positive, although overall profitability will still be some way off (and this is not a solution for breeders of course).
Export opportunities exist. If Danish farmers can maintain their clean ASF record, they remain a viable exporter to valuable Asian markets.
Productivity gains. Productivity metrics improved across Danish farms in the past 12 months, on all fronts. These improvements will lower the threshold for positive contribution margins, and profitability.
Conclusion
The Danish pig farmers are under extreme pressure from falling pig slaughter quotations. Relief is unlikely to arrive in the short term, so the game for now is about survival.