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Market Pulse: Bulgaria's Euro Era Begins, EU Meat Mix Shifts, Spain's ASF Ripples
Bulgaria's euro adoption boosts meat trade prospects, EU poultry production gains ground over declining red meat sectors, and Spain's ASF outbreak continues to reshape European pork markets.
Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer
Eastern Europe Drives EU Pig Slaughter Growth Amid Price Pressures
Regional Production Surge
Eastern European member states are leading EU pig slaughter growth in early 2026, with Bulgaria recording a 15.2% increase, Romania showing 9.5% growth, and Poland posting a 4.5% rise according to recent EU livestock reports. The highest increases in EU pig slaughter have been concentrated in Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Romania, reflecting strengthening production capacity and improving disease management in these regions.
Price Decline Accelerates
Despite production growth in Eastern Europe, EU-wide pig prices continued their sharp decline in late January 2026. The EU-spec Standard Pig Price (SPP) fell by 0.77p to stand at 191.43p/kg during the week ended 24 January 2026, marking the lowest level since July 2022. The benchmark price has now lost nearly 6p since the end of 2025 and stands nearly 13p below the same week in 2025.
Key Price Metrics (Week Ending 24 January 2026):
EU-spec SPP: 191.43p/kg (down 0.77p week-on-week)
EU grade S reference: 132.68p/kg equivalent (week ending 11 January 2026)
Price decline since end-2025: 5.8p
Year-on-year decline: 12.7p
Trade Dynamics Shifting
Romania has emerged as Bulgaria's leading meat supplier with a 21% share of broiler meat imports by volume, followed by Hungary at 20% and Poland at 16%. For processed meat dishes, Germany, Poland and Italy together comprise 56% of Bulgaria's total imports. Meanwhile, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium represent the largest markets for Romanian meat exports worldwide, with a combined 47% share.
Implications
The divergence between Eastern European production growth and EU-wide price weakness highlights the complex market dynamics currently reshaping the European meat sector. While Eastern European producers benefit from lower costs and absence of major disease outbreaks, the overall market remains under pressure from weak demand and ongoing African swine fever concerns. The strengthening of intra-EU trade flows between Eastern European states reflects increasing regional integration and efficient transport corridors.
Suggested Actions
For Buyers: Eastern European suppliers offer growing volumes at competitive prices. Evaluate supply agreements with Bulgarian, Romanian and Polish producers who are expanding capacity and improving biosecurity standards.
For Eastern European Producers: Current price weakness presents market share opportunities. Focus on quality differentiation and building direct relationships with Western European buyers to capture margin during the recovery.
For Western European Producers: Monitor Eastern European competition closely. Cost efficiency and productivity improvements are essential to maintain market position as lower-cost regions expand production.
For Traders: The widening price differential between regions creates arbitrage opportunities. Strengthen logistics capabilities to facilitate efficient movement between surplus and deficit regions.
Spain ASF Cases Surge to 103 as Control Measures Intensify
Latest Outbreak Data (2 February 2026)
Catalonia's Department of Agriculture confirmed 18 new positive cases of African swine fever on 2 February 2026, bringing Spain's total to 103 confirmed cases since the initial detection on 26 November 2025. These cases have been identified from 980 wild boars tested, representing a 10.5% positivity rate among tested animals. The outbreak remains concentrated in the Cerdanyola del Vallès area near Barcelona.
Outbreak Progression:
26 November 2025: First 2 cases detected
Mid-December 2025: 13 cumulative cases
Mid-January 2026: 26 cumulative cases
2 February 2026: 103 cumulative cases
Wild boars tested: 980 animals
Positivity rate: 10.5%
Estimated remaining untested animals in high-risk zone (0-6km): 200
Enhanced Control Measures
Authorities have modified prevention and control measures while intensifying wild boar population reduction efforts throughout Catalonia. The department has increased captures using traps, silencers and tracking with canine units, particularly in the affected area extending from 0 to 20 kilometres from the initial detection point. The EU established provisional emergency measures that must be applied until 28 February 2026 to contain the disease.
Trade Impact Assessment
Spain's position as the EU's leading pork producer—accounting for a quarter of the bloc's output—amplifies the outbreak's significance. With annual pork exports valued at approximately €3.5 billion, the trade disruptions have been substantial. Major markets including Japan, Mexico, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand have suspended all Spanish pork imports. However, regionalisation agreements with China, South Korea, the United Kingdom and all EU member states continue to permit imports from ASF-free regions, preventing total export collapse.
Market Price Impact
The Spain ASF situation has contributed significantly to EU-wide price weakness. The outbreak accelerated the downward price trend that began in late 2025, with producers across Europe feeling the impact through reduced demand and heightened biosecurity costs.
Implications
The rapid acceleration from 26 to 103 cases over ten weeks demonstrates the challenges of wild boar population management in containing ASF. The 10.5% positivity rate among tested animals suggests substantial viral circulation within the affected wild boar population. Spain's three-decade disease-free status (officially declared eradicated from the Iberian Peninsula in 1995) has ended, requiring complete reconstruction of biosecurity protocols and surveillance systems. The effectiveness of regionalisation in maintaining partial market access provides a template for other member states facing similar risks.
Suggested Actions
For Spanish Producers: Document ASF-free status meticulously. Invest in enhanced biosecurity infrastructure to protect against wild boar contact. Maintain detailed movement records to support regionalisation claims.
For EU Producers: Strengthen perimeter biosecurity focused on wild boar exclusion. The Spain outbreak demonstrates that decades of freedom provide no immunity from reintroduction. Review and upgrade surveillance protocols.
For Importers: Verify regional origin certification carefully. Spain's ASF-free regions remain viable sources, but documentation and traceability are critical. Diversify supplier base to manage concentration risk.
For Policy Makers: Assess wild boar management strategies across member states. The Spain experience highlights the importance of population control in preventing and managing outbreaks. Support regionalisation frameworks that allow trade continuity while managing disease risks.
EU Meat Market Observatory Releases January 2026 Data
Latest Market Publications
The European Commission's meat market observatory published its Market Situation for Pigmeat on 23 January 2026, followed by the comprehensive Meat and Eggs Market Situation Factsheet on 30 January 2026. These reports provide the most current official data on EU meat production, prices, and trade flows entering February 2026.
Key Market Trends
Global pork production in 2026 is projected at 117.2 million tonnes, effectively unchanged from 2025, as growth in Vietnam, Brazil and Mexico offsets continued EU contraction. Production costs and new ASF discoveries continue to strain European producers. EU pork exports are forecast to decline 7%—the largest drop among major exporters—as the sector increasingly focuses on the domestic market.
EU pork consumption is forecast to grow slightly in 2026 despite production challenges, supported by favourable pricing relative to beef. In some Central European markets, pork loin prices have fallen below chicken fillet prices, enhancing pork's competitive position among protein options.
Beef Market Pressures
Total 2025 EU net beef production (from total cattle slaughter excluding trade balance) declined 1.3% from 2024 levels to 6.73 million tonnes, driven by the shrinking breeding herd. The year 2025 saw significant declines in slaughtering and beef production, with very high prices continuing to restrain domestic consumption. The EU will import more than 400,000 tonnes of beef again in 2026 as production continues falling.
Policy Framework Developments
On 28 January 2026, the Sustainable Livestock Intergroup of the European Parliament hosted an event at the Committee of the Regions in Brussels (09:00-12:30), bringing together policymakers, farmers, scientists and international organisations to discuss low-emissions livestock policy frameworks. The meeting addressed what policy framework can support EU producers in staying at the forefront of low-emissions livestock production.
Implications
The stabilisation of global pork production at current levels reflects the balance between expanding production in major growth markets and continued structural decline in the EU. The EU's 7% export decline represents significant market share loss, particularly in Asian markets where Australian, Brazilian and North American suppliers are gaining ground. Beef market dynamics point to continued import dependence and upward price pressure, raising food security concerns. The policy focus on emissions reduction adds another layer of cost and complexity for European producers already facing disease and market pressures.
Suggested Actions
For EU Producers: Focus on domestic market retention as export opportunities contract. Differentiate on quality, welfare and sustainability credentials to justify premium positioning. Engage actively with emissions reduction policy development to ensure viable implementation pathways.
For Importers: EU beef import dependence creates supply opportunities for third-country suppliers meeting EU standards. Pork import opportunities may emerge if EU production continues contracting faster than consumption.
For Policy Makers: Balance emissions reduction objectives with production viability. The EU risks accelerating production loss if cost burdens from environmental regulations exceed producers' ability to recover them in the market.
For Analysts: Monitor the gap between EU consumption and production across proteins. Widening gaps signal increasing import dependence and vulnerability to global supply disruptions.