Published in Market Analysis
Irish Pigs Sell Above the EU Average and Still Lose Money on Every Head
Irish pig prices sit about 11c/kg above the EU average but about 17c/kg under the Teagasc cost of production, and our view is that this makes Ireland a two-speed pork market with the exported 40% carrying the most risk.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our reading of the numbers, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below it.
Ireland looks like a safe corner of a weak European pork market, and in one way it is: Irish pigs are paid more than the EU average. But the premium is small, and it is smaller than the gap to what it costs to raise a pig. We think that makes Irish pork a two-speed market. The 60% sold at home is anchored by loyal shoppers. The 40% sold abroad has to compete with plentiful European supply, and that is where we see the most pressure.
The numbers also show a supply side that is not shrinking. More pigs went through Irish plants this year, and fewer live pigs went north to Northern Ireland. We read that as more pork staying in the Irish system just as export outlets are mixed, with China down and Africa up. Where Irish exporters price against other EU suppliers, we expect the lower EU average to set the tone for the export part of the business, with the Irish premium hard to defend on cuts that have to leave the island.
For buyers outside Ireland, the practical meaning is about origin and cut mix. Irish export pork may be offered more keenly than the farm-gate price suggests, because processors have volume to place. That is a description of pressure on supply, not a promise of a particular price level.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
We assume European pork supply stays ample through the winter, as Bord Bia expects. If a disease event or a sharp fall in output tightened supply, the EU average could recover faster than we think.
We assume Irish plants keep processing at or above last year's pace. If farms exit and kill numbers fall, the supply pressure we describe would ease, although we think such a response would come with a delay.
We assume the export share keeps pricing off the EU level. If demand from Africa keeps rising from here, or China buying recovers, that part of the market could behave better than the EU average implies.
We assume Irish shoppers keep buying pork at home at about the current rate. A sharper drop in consumer spending would put more weight on the export side.
What the numbers actually say
The Irish Farmers Journal reported on 28 October that Irish pig prices were generally between €1.65 and €1.72/kg, depending on grading. Teagasc puts the average cost of production at €1.85/kg, so some farms are losing 10 to 15 cents per kilo, or roughly €8 to €12 per pig. The paper estimated sector losses at €450,000 to €700,000 a week, on an average kill of about 58,000 pigs a week.
A Bord Bia article published on 31 October gives the wider picture. Irish prices averaged €1.68/kg excluding VAT over the last five weeks, about 12% below the same period in 2025, and the EU average for those weeks was €1.57/kg, so Ireland was about 11 cents higher.
Key figures from the Bord Bia article, as reported by the Irish Farmers Journal:
More than 2.7 million pigs were processed at Irish export-approved plants by the week ending 10 October, over 110,000 more than a year earlier (roughly 4% more, by our calculation).
Live pig exports to Northern Ireland were down 17%, nearly 60,000 fewer head.
Irish pigmeat exports to mainland China were worth €50 million up to August, down 22% or €14 million. Exports to Africa rose 19%.
The home market takes 60% of Irish production and exports take 40%.
Kantar data show consumer spending on pork down 3% year on year, against 5% for beef and 30% for lamb.
Bord Bia describes the outlook for the rest of 2026 as challenging and expects European supplies to stay ample. The latest 3tres3 price page shows how the wider market was moving in late October: the French MPF carcass price was €1.552/kg on 26 October, up 0.6% on the week, and the Spanish Mercolleida live pig price rose 2.5% to €1.208/kg on 22 October. These are different price bases from the Irish figures and should not be compared directly.
What we are watching next
Whether the weekly Irish pig price moves toward or away from the €1.85/kg cost line.
Whether weekly kill numbers keep running above last year, and whether live trade to Northern Ireland keeps falling.
Whether the African growth and the Chinese decline in Irish pigmeat exports continue in the next data.
How the EU average price moves against the Irish premium of about 11 cents.
A question a reader may want to ask their own Irish suppliers: what share of their volume goes to the home market and what share is sold for export?
Sources
Pig losses heading towards €700,000 per week - Irish Farmers Journal