Ireland Is Killing More Ewes and Fewer Lambs, and Buyers Should Read That as a Supply Warning

MeatBorsa's take

What follows in this section is our reading of the news, not reported fact. The confirmed figures are in the next section.

Ireland's weekly sheep kill has beaten last year's level for ten weeks in a row, and on the surface that sounds like plenty of supply. We read it the other way. The extra animals are not lambs. They are cull ewes, the breeding stock that makes next year's lambs. When a country slaughters 75,000 more ewes and 60,000 fewer lambs than last year, we think it is shrinking the engine, not just selling more product.

For a buyer of Irish lamb, we think the practical message is to treat today's calm price as a snapshot, not a trend. Irish factory quotes are sitting around €8.00 to €8.30/kg, which is well below the early summer peak, and offers have risen for two weeks. The Irish Farmers' Association (IFA) cites UK prices above €8.50/kg and French prices above €9/kg. We think that gap gives Irish sellers a reason to hold out for more, and gives buyers a reason to cover autumn and winter needs earlier rather than later.

We expect the tight spot to show up first in the spring and early summer of 2027, when fewer ewes mean fewer lambs. Anyone who sells lamb forward into that period should be careful about fixing prices now.

What we assume, and why we could be wrong

• We assume the high cull ewe kill reflects flock reduction. It could also be a one-off clear-out of older ewes after a hard year, with farmers keeping their best ewes and replacing the rest. In that case the flock would be younger, not smaller.

• We assume demand stays strong. If European retail demand softens before Christmas, factories could hold the base price flat and the early price rise could fade.

• We assume farmers hold lambs back when prices rise. Higher prices could instead pull lambs forward and lift weekly lamb kill in the coming weeks, which would ease the shortage we describe.

• We assume the price gap to the UK and France persists. Different quoting bases, currencies and quality premiums mean the three prices are not a perfect like-for-like comparison.

What the numbers actually say

Agriland reported on 5 October that Irish sheep kill has run above the previous year for ten consecutive weeks. The year-to-date kill is up by more than 20,000 head. Lamb and hogget slaughter is down by 60,000 head, while factory cull ewe and ram slaughter is up by more than 75,000 head. Quotes on that day were largely unchanged from the week before, at €8.00 to €8.30/kg for lambs and €4.00 to €5.00/kg for cull ewes, depending on the processor.

A week earlier, Agriland reported that most processors had raised lamb offers by 10c/kg for the second week running. The outlet described the trade positivity as arriving earlier than many farmers had expected. O'Flynn Meats lifted its carcass-weight limit by 0.5kg to 23kg.

IFA's market update of 25 September gave the weekly detail for the week ending 20 September: 34,970 spring lambs and 7,990 ewes and rams, with a total of 43,307 head, down 3,192 on the week before. The official Irish average price was 774.79 c/kg, up 5c. IFA put the UK price above €8.50/kg and the French price above €9/kg. The IFA Sheep Chair argued that factories should "reflect the reality of the marketplace" in their pricing. That is the farm organisation's position, and processors' views were not part of the update.

Key numbers:

• Irish sheep kill above last year for 10 weeks in a row, up more than 20,000 head year to date (Agriland, 5 October)

• Lamb and hogget kill down 60,000 head; cull ewe and ram kill up more than 75,000 head (Agriland, 5 October)

• Lamb quotes €8.00 to €8.30/kg; cull ewes €4.00 to €5.00/kg (Agriland, 5 October)

• UK above €8.50/kg and France above €9/kg, as cited by IFA (25 September)

What we are watching next

The first thing is the lamb and hogget kill against last year. If the 60,000 gap closes, our supply worry weakens. The second is the cull ewe kill: if it stays well above last year through November, the flock is shrinking. The third is whether Irish quotes move toward the UK and French levels that IFA cites, or whether Irish plants keep their discount. We will also keep an eye on carcass-weight limits, which have been creeping up and tell us how hard plants are chasing volume.

Sources

Sheep trade: Ewe and lamb prices remain solid this week - Agriland

Sheep trade: Lamb price offers on the rise again this week - Agriland

Beef & Sheep Update 25th September - Irish Farmers' Association