Published in Market Analysis
Germany's Pig Price Is 47% Below Its 2023 Peak. For Pork, It Is Now a Balance Sheet Story
The German VEZG pig price fell 8 cents to €1.32 per kg, 47% below its July 2023 peak and €0.73 under farm full costs, which makes balance sheets, not meat, the question for the pork trade.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our reading of the numbers, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below.
Our CEO put it plainly in a LinkedIn post this week: "At this point, meat industry is not about meat anymore. It's about balance sheets." We agree, and the numbers below show why.
The German VEZG price fell 8 cents to €1.32 per kg carcass weight on 28 October. In his post, our CEO noted that the German index is, in his words, what basically determines the price of pork in Europe, that this is the lowest level since February 2022, and that all of this comes while inflation has been rampant since Covid and input costs have risen sharply. Set against a July 2023 peak of €2.50, today's price is 47% lower. At the same time, farm advisers calculate full costs of €2.05 per kg. A price that sits €0.73 below cost is not a margin squeeze. It is a slow drain on cash.
That is what we mean by a balance sheet story. A farm or a processor can sell pork at a loss for a few weeks, but not for many months. What decides who stays in the market is not how well they raise pigs or cut meat, but how much cash, credit and patience they have. For buyers, this matters in a practical way: a supplier whose margins are negative for a long time becomes a counterparty risk. Delivery reliability, payment terms and who you trade with deserve more attention than they did a year ago.
Cheap pork is also not automatically good news for everyone on the buying side. If low prices push weaker producers out or make them cut back, supply later in 2027 could tighten, and today's price would look like the low point in hindsight. We would not build a plan on that, but we would not ignore it either.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
We assume most producers cannot absorb a price this far below cost for many more months. If many farms are cushioned by good reserves, cheap credit or lower feed bills, the adjustment could be much slower, and prices could stay low for longer.
We assume supply stays heavy for the next few weeks. Pigs that are ready cannot wait long on farm. If slaughter numbers or carcass weights come in lower than the trade expects, the pressure on the listing would ease sooner.
We assume the weak sales for meat are about demand and stocks, not only about price. ISN, the German pig farmers' association, describes a well-stocked meat market with few outlets. If buyers are simply waiting for lower prices, a stabilisation could bring them back quickly.
We assume the German move leads other markets. The Dutch quotations tracked by MeatBorsa (Vion and DCA) were unchanged on 28 October while VEZG fell. If they hold firm, Germany could rebound, and German-origin pork would then lose its price advantage.
We assume falling piglet prices mean fewer pigs will be placed later. If farms keep barns full regardless of losses, this effect would be small and the supply signal would be weaker than we describe.
What the numbers actually say
The listing: The VEZG slaughter pig price was set at €1.32 per kg carcass weight on 28 October, down 8 cents from €1.40, according to VEZG and ISN price data.
The 2023 peak: The VEZG price was €2.50 per kg on 5 July 2023, according to market data from ZMP. Against that level, €1.32 is a drop of about 47%, or €1.18 per kg.
Seven weeks: MeatBorsa's price tracker shows VEZG at €1.60 in week 37 and €1.32 in week 44, a fall of €0.28 or about 17.5%. €1.32 is the bottom of the tracker's 52-week range of €1.32 to €1.70.
Other markets: Over the same weeks the tracker shows Vion (Netherlands) down from €1.36 to €1.16 per kg carcass weight, and Mercolleida (Spain, live weight) down from €1.36 to €1.21 per kg live weight. The two are quoted on different bases from VEZG, so we compare the direction, not the levels.
Costs: ISN reported on 21 October that calculated full costs for piglet production and fattening average €2.05 per kg carcass weight. At €1.32 the listing is €0.73 below that figure. ISN described the economic situation of pig farms as worse than in the 2020 and 2021 crisis years.
The week before: On 21 October the listing stayed at €1.40 per kg. ISN pointed to a large supply meeting a well-stocked meat market with limited sales options.
Piglets: ISN's weekly table shows the 25 kg piglet quotation at €28.00, down from €30.00 in earlier weeks, and the lighter 8 kg quotation at €16.20, down from €17.40.
Europe: ISN reported on 20 October that most European pig listings had fallen, with Denmark the exception. The corrected declines ranged from 2 cents in Belgium to 9 cents in Austria.
ISN's market commentary of 28 October says the slaughter pig market still lacks the impulses the trade hoped for and remains tense.
On contracts, VEZG's news page records that on 23 October the German Farmers' Association (DBV), the Westphalian-Lippe Farmers' Association (WLV) and ISN agreed with Tönnies to restore the VEZG listing as the price basis in its supply contracts. The farm groups said they would lift their recommendation against signing once Tönnies amends the contracts, and that broader contract questions across the industry remain open. We report this as a commercial agreement between the parties and draw no conclusion from it.
What we are watching next
The next VEZG listing is due on Wednesday 4 November. We will look at whether it holds at €1.32 or moves again, whether the piglet quotations keep falling, and whether the Dutch, Danish and Spanish quotations follow Germany lower. We will also be listening for signs of financial stress among suppliers, since that is where we think this story goes next.
Sources
VEZG Vereinigungspreis for slaughter pigs - VEZG
ISN-News: pig market, EU pig prices and VEZG contract basis - VEZG
Market prices and reports, week 44 - schweine.net (ISN)
VEZG-Notierung Schwein bleibt unverändert: 2,50 Euro/kg, 5 July 2023 - ZMP