Published in Market Analysis
European Pig Prices Are Falling While Feed Gets Dearer, and Supply Has Not Reacted Yet
Pig prices in Spain and Germany keep sliding while feed costs creep up, and the production cuts that would fix it are forecast for 2027, not this winter.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our reading of the market, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below it.
We think European pork is in the uncomfortable middle of a margin squeeze. Prices are still drifting down, feed is not getting cheaper, and the supply cuts that would normally lift prices are forecast for 2027. That means the next few months look like a buyer's market, and the price recovery, when it comes, is more likely a story for next year than for this winter.
For buyers, we think this favours buying pork cuts on short horizons while sellers still need to move volume. For sellers, it means margin discipline matters more than market share. A seller who is losing money per pig today has less room to cut price further, and that is where we expect the floor to form. We would not bet on a quick bounce, though, because the animals are still arriving.
There is one more reason to stay patient. Spain's census of pigs is down, but its sow herd is reported as up. A bigger sow herd means more piglets later, which pushes back against the idea that supply will shrink fast.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
- We assume producers cannot keep absorbing losses for long, so herd reductions show up in 2027 slaughter numbers. This could be wrong if producers stay in production on cheap credit or low fixed costs, which would drag the adjustment out.
- We assume feed prices stay near current levels. A sharp fall in cereals or soybean meal would ease the squeeze quickly and take pressure off sellers. A further rise would make it worse.
- We assume pork stays cheap enough against beef and chicken to hold European demand. If chicken prices fall further, as they have recently, pork could lose some of that advantage.
- We assume export demand stays soft. If Asian buyers return faster than expected, the surplus on the European market would clear sooner than we think.
- We assume disease stays at roughly the current level. A new outbreak in a major producing region would change export access and prices in either direction, depending on where it lands.
What the numbers actually say
The Spanish pig sector body Interporc published its September barometer, as reported by Agronews Castilla y Le贸n on 7 October 2026. The Spanish pig price averaged 1.315 euro per kg live weight, down 2.6% on the month. German pig prices fell 9.4% over the same comparison, according to the same report.
On the cost side, the barometer reports barley up 4.7% and soybean meal up 10.8%. Spain's pig census stands at 33.1 million, down 2% on a year earlier, while the number of sows is 2.68 million, up 2.6%. Spanish pork exports from January to July were down 4%, with weaker sales to China and Japan partly offset by gains in South Korea and Vietnam.
The latest Segovia market session, covered by Agronews on 9 October, showed the trend continuing. Standard fattening pigs were quoted at 1.270 euro per kg live weight, down 2 cents, while feed barley rose 3 euro per tonne to 223 euro and feed wheat rose 2 euro to 232 euro.
Looking ahead, a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecast dated 16 September, reported by pig333 on 2 October, expects EU pig slaughter to fall 0.52% to 229.3 million head in 2027. It also expects the first drop in EU pork production since 2023 and exports at their lowest level since 2015, with consumption holding up because pork is cheap compared with beef and chicken breast.
Key numbers in brief:
- Spain, September 2026: live pig price 1.315 euro per kg, down 2.6% month on month
- Germany, September 2026: pig prices down 9.4%
- EU pigmeat exports, January to July 2026: value down 13%, about 930 million euro, per European Commission data reported by pig333
- EU slaughter 2027 (USDA forecast): 229.3 million head, down 0.52%
Disease remains in the background. The EU's animal disease reporting system recorded 733 African swine fever outbreaks in domestic pigs from January to September 2026, almost level with 732 a year earlier, according to pig333 on 9 October. Romania and Serbia account for nearly three quarters of those cases, and Croatia reported 130, up from 43.
What we are watching next
We will be looking at three things. First, whether the sow herd figures in Spain, Germany and the Netherlands start to fall, since that is the earliest sign that supply is adjusting. Second, the gap between pig prices and feed costs, which tells us how long producers can hold on. Third, whether export value to Asia stabilises after the 13% drop in the first seven months of the year.
Sources
Lonja de Segovia, 8 October 2026: cereals, sheep and pigs - Agronews Castilla y Le贸n
EU pork production and exports set to decline in 2027 - pig333
EU agri-food trade remains solid in 2026, pigmeat exports down - pig333
ASF in Europe: Fewer outbreaks in wild boars, but no decline in pigs - pig333