Published in Market Analysis
Europe Took More Than a Year's Worth of Brazilian Chicken Before the Door Closed
Brazil shipped about 312,000 tonnes of poultry meat to the EU in January to September, more than in all of 2025, and our view is that this front-loaded volume is cushioning the suspension ahead of the 16-17 November committee meeting.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our reading of the situation, not reported fact. The confirmed figures are further down.
Europe has already received more Brazilian chicken this year than in the whole of 2025, and a large part of it arrived just before the 3 September cut-off. That is why we think the suspension has so far shown up less in the EU chicken price than in the flow of new Brazilian contracts. The EU broiler price is only 1.9% below a year ago and has eased slowly, not jumped.
Our view is that the September surge works like a buffer. Meat shipped on certificates issued before the deadline kept landing after it, and we expect much of it to be sold through cold stores and processing contracts over the autumn. While that buffer lasts, the gap left by Brazil is spread out over weeks rather than felt in one go.
The EU committee meeting on 16-17 November has a possible vote on Brazil's listing on its agenda. We make no call on the outcome. What we can say is that the market effect will lag the decision either way. If the listing stays as it is, the buffer runs down over the winter and more of the gap falls to EU producers and other origins such as Ukraine. If Brazil is relisted, new product still has to be produced, certified and shipped before it reaches European ports, so it would not change supply in the same week.
The part of the market we think is most exposed is the one that relies on Brazilian volume at a lower cost. According to AVEC, a competitiveness study it will present on 30 November puts 2024 costs in Brazil, Thailand, Ukraine, Argentina and the US 28-44% below the EU benchmark, up from 14-26% in 2017. That gap is the reason Brazilian chicken matters to European buyers whatever the regulatory status.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
- We assume a good share of the September shipments is still in the supply chain. If most of it has already been used, the gap would show in EU prices sooner than we expect.
- We assume EU output and other origins can cover much of the shortfall. Imports from Ukraine are already up strongly this year. A heavy bird flu season in Europe would weaken this and could tighten supply faster.
- We assume soft EU demand is part of why prices have eased. If demand picks up into the end of the year, the same volume would support a firmer price.
What the numbers say
The EU removed Brazil from its list of countries authorised to export poultry meat under its rules on antimicrobial use in animals, with effect from 3 September 2026. A Commission audit concluded that Brazil's control system could provide the required guarantees, according to the European poultry processors' association AVEC.
On 10 November AVEC said Brazil shipped about 312,000 tonnes of poultry meat to the EU in January to September 2026, citing Brazilian industry data. That is around 34% more than the 233,000 tonnes shipped in all of 2025. AVEC said 43,500 tonnes of chicken meat were shipped in September alone, because consignments certified before 3 September could still be sent legally.
The European Commission's own figures point the same way, on a different basis (carcass weight). Its poultry dashboard, updated on 11 November, shows:
- EU poultry imports from Brazil of 292,919 tonnes in January to July 2026, up 55.3% on a year earlier and already above the 265,700 tonnes recorded for all of 2025.
- Total EU poultry imports up 16.2% in the same period, with Ukraine up 25.3% and the UK down 30%.
- An EU average broiler price of €283.64 per 100 kg carcass weight, 0.2% lower than the previous week, 1.4% lower than a month ago and 1.9% below a year ago.
Two positions ahead of the committee meeting
The Commission has put an update of the list of authorised exporting countries on the agenda for 16-17 November, which could restore Brazil's authorisation for poultry meat, Poultry News reported on 11 November.
AVEC has asked for that vote to be postponed until Member States receive additional, independently verified guarantees. The association says it wants evidence that controls work across the whole life of the birds, including feed sampling, checks at hatcheries and separation of poultry intended for the EU. AVEC also said the shipments made before the deadline met EU food safety rules and posed no risk to consumers, but argued they did not meet the new antimicrobial rules.
On the other side, the Commission's audit found that Brazil's system could give the guarantees the EU requires. AVEC has also asked for origin labelling of poultry in processed food and catering, EU control of poultry tariff-quota management, use of the EU-Mercosur safeguard mechanism for poultry, and no additional preferential access for Thailand.
What we are watching next
- The outcome of the 16-17 November committee meeting, and the date any change to the list would take effect.
- The weekly EU broiler price in the Commission dashboard, to see whether the slow easing continues as the September buffer is used up.
- The next Commission import figures covering August and September, which will show how much of the pre-deadline surge actually landed.
- AVEC's competitiveness study, due on 30 November.
A useful question to ask suppliers of imported chicken right now is which origin a given lot comes from and on what date its health certificate was issued.
Sources
AVEC sounds the alarm over surge in poultry imports from Brazil - AVEC
AVEC calls for delay to EU vote on Brazilian poultry imports - Poultry News