Published in Market Analysis
Europe's Pork Market Squeezed: More Supply, Weaker Exports, Spreading Swine Fever
European pork producers face a tough mid-2026, with too much meat on the market, falling export earnings, and African swine fever spreading to more countries.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
European pork producers face a tough mid-2026, with too much meat on the market, falling export earnings, and African swine fever spreading to more countries.
A market with too much pork
Global pork prices are under pressure in the second half of 2026. Supply is high and demand is soft, so prices in most big producing regions sit below where they were a year ago. That is the main message from Rabobank's latest global pork report, shared by National Hog Farmer.
In Europe the problem is clear. Production has grown over the past two years, and African swine fever in Spain has cut off some export markets. When Spanish pork cannot ship abroad, more of it stays inside the EU, and that pushes local prices down.
What the EU numbers show
The European Commission's updated 2026 outlook, reported by Pig World, expects EU pork output to level off after two years of growth.
Key figures for 2026:
Net pig meat production is set to rise just 0.3% to about 22.1 million tonnes.
The sow herd is forecast to grow 0.6%.
Pork eaten per person stays flat at 33.1 kg.
Imports are expected to drop 3% to 94,900 tonnes.
Exports are forecast to fall 0.5% to 2.97 million tonnes.
EU pork export volumes were already 1.9% lower in the first five months of the year. Three main forces sit behind these weaker exports: ASF outbreaks in Spain, China's anti-dumping tariffs on EU pork, and stronger competition from Brazil in Asian markets.
Trade is shifting to new players
The global pork trade is changing shape, even though total trade volumes are holding fairly steady.
Brazil is the clear winner. Its pork exports reached record levels in the first half of 2026, with volumes up 15% and export earnings up 36% compared with a year earlier. Strong demand at home and abroad means Brazilian farmers have little reason to slow down.
China, the world's largest buyer, is pulling back. Chinese imports were down 15% so far this year as the country works through its own oversupply. Rabobank expects China to buy more again later in 2026, as its sow herd shrinks and local supply tightens.
Buyers in Mexico and the Philippines have stepped up their purchases. The Philippines recently reopened its market to Spanish pork, which could give European sellers a useful extra outlet.
African swine fever keeps spreading
Disease remains the biggest wild card for pork buyers and sellers. In recent weeks, ASF has caused new problems in several European countries, according to Pig World.
Hungary confirmed its second outbreak in farmed pigs, on a farm of about 1,850 animals in Somogy County. The whole herd was set to be culled. Hungary saw its first farm case only in June.
Finland is widening its control zone after finding the virus in wild boar near the Russian border. Fourteen cases have been confirmed since late July.
Serbia has been hit hard, with about 36,632 pigs dead or culled across 930 infected farms in seven districts. One farm alone lost more than 11,000 pigs in early July.
Each new outbreak can trigger export bans and reroute trade, which adds more uncertainty to an already crowded market.
What buyers and sellers should watch
The near-term picture points to continued pressure on European pork prices. For companies trading meat, a few signals matter most in the coming months:
Weekly EU reference prices and national benchmarks, which show how fast the market is clearing.
China's buying pace, since a return of Chinese demand could lift prices.
New ASF outbreaks, which can close markets quickly and shift trade flows.
Brazil's export growth, which keeps competition strong across Asian and global buyers.
Wider costs add to the uncertainty. Rabobank points to a slowing economy, feed price risk linked to Middle East tensions, and cheaper chicken supplies, all of which shape how much pork people buy.
For now, Europe's pork sector is working through a period of plenty. More supply than the market wants, softer export earnings, and a spreading disease all make careful planning essential for buyers and sellers alike.