Published in Market Analysis
Europe Is Selling Less Pork and Buying More Beef and Chicken
The EU's meat trade surplus shrank in pork, poultry and beef in the first seven months of 2026, and our view is that these are one trend: Europe exports less of what it has plenty of and imports more where price or cut mix favours it.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our own reading of the data, not reported fact. The confirmed figures, with sources, follow below.
Between January and July 2026, the EU's trade surplus got smaller in pork, in poultry and in beef. We think this is one trend, not three. Europe is selling less of the meat it has plenty of, and buying more where price or cut mix favours imports.
Pork is the biggest hole. Export value fell by 13%, and the decline was spread across four destinations, not one. Our view is that this pork now has to be absorbed inside Europe, which keeps pressure on pig prices and on sellers of cuts that used to go to Asia.
Chicken is the more interesting case. Imports grew faster than exports, yet the EU broiler price is still about 5% below last year. That tells us imported chicken is competing on price and cut, not filling a shortage. Beef looks similar: import value is up 16% while the EU carcass price is about 10% lower than a year ago.
What this could mean in practice: buyers of EU chicken and beef should test import offers next to EU quotes, because there is more of them in the market than last year. Sellers of EU pork should not plan around export volumes returning to last year's level.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
- Pork export weakness lasts through winter. We assume this because the fall hit China, Japan, the Philippines and the UK together. We could be wrong if pig supply shrinks faster than expected. USDA, as reported by pig333, already sees fewer pigs and lower slaughter in 2027, and a tighter supply could lift prices earlier than we expect.
- Chicken imports stay high while the price gap holds. If EU broiler prices fall further, the gap narrows and buyers may switch back to EU supply. The import data also end in June, so they say little about the months after.
- Part of the beef import rise is price-driven. Import value cannot separate price from volume. If most of the 16% is higher unit prices, competition for EU beef is weaker than we think.
What the numbers actually say
The European Commission's monthly trade monitor, published on 28 September, compares January to July 2026 with the same months of 2025. The key numbers:
- Pigmeat exports: EUR 6,315 million, down EUR 930 million (13%). The Commission links the fall mostly to lower prices and falling volumes to China, Japan, the Philippines and the UK. UK pigmeat exports fell 8%, and Japan volumes fell after the African swine fever outbreak in Spain in November 2025.
- Beef and veal imports: EUR 2,130 million, up 16%.
- Poultry and eggs imports: EUR 2,021 million, up 14%. The Commission reports poultry and eggs together, so this figure includes eggs.
- Trade surplus in pigmeat: EUR 6,114 million, down EUR 923 million. In poultry and eggs it was EUR 1,672 million, down EUR 322 million, and in beef and veal EUR 1,067 million, down EUR 89 million. By our calculation, that is roughly 13%, 16% and 8% lower.
The Commission's poultry dashboard, dated 7 October, adds volumes for January to June. EU poultry imports rose 13.2% to 573,037 tonnes, while exports rose only 1.6%. Brazil supplied 263,764 tonnes, up 44.0%. The EU broiler price in week 40 was EUR 286.74 per 100 kg carcase weight, about 5% below a year earlier. These data end before the EU's September decisions on Brazilian meat, which we covered in our 6 October post.
The Commission's beef bulletin for week 40, updated on 8 October, shows the EU average price for young bulls (R3) at EUR 635.81 per 100 kg carcase weight. That is 0.1% higher than the week before and 10.2% lower than a year earlier.
On the outlook for pork, pig333 reported on 2 October that USDA expects EU pork production to fall in 2027 for the first time since 2023, with exports cut by 100,000 tonnes to the lowest level since 2015. Spain and Germany are named among the largest cuts in slaughter.
What we are watching next
The next monthly Commission trade monitor, which should add August, will show whether the pork export decline is still deepening or has levelled off. We will also follow the weekly poultry dashboard for any change in the gap between EU broiler prices and last year. For beef, the question is whether import volumes, not just value, keep rising while EU prices stay lower.
Sources
Monitoring EU agri-food trade, developments until July 2026 - European Commission, DG AGRI
Poultry meat dashboard, 7 October 2026 - European Commission, DG AGRI
Beef and veal market bulletin, week 40 2026 - European Commission, Meat Market Observatory
EU pork production and exports set to decline in 2027 - pig333 (3tres3)