EU Chicken Is Getting Cheaper While Output Grows, and Brazil's Absence Barely Dents It

Published in Market Analysis

EU Chicken Is Getting Cheaper While Output Grows, and Brazil's Absence Barely Dents It

EU broiler prices sit about 5% below last year as production grows faster than demand, so the pause in Brazilian chicken imports is a smaller story for the price than it looks.

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Martina Osmak

Director of Marketing

MeatBorsa's take

This section is our own reading of the numbers. The confirmed facts follow below it.

We think the EU chicken market is driven by its own supply, not by what happens to Brazilian imports. Production is growing at a pace that the market is not absorbing at last year's prices. Brazilian chicken has been paused since 3 September, yet the EU price is still sliding. That tells us the EU was not short of chicken when the pause began.

Our rough arithmetic points the same way. Brazil sent about 264,000 tonnes to the EU in the first half of 2026. Doubled for a full year, that is around 3.7% of the 14.3 million tonnes the EU produced in 2025. It is a real volume for importers of specific products, but small next to the growth in EU output.

For buyers, we expect comfortable supply of EU-origin chicken through the winter, with the best deals on the cuts Polish and other EU sellers push hardest. For sellers, we expect margins to stay thin. Anyone who built a plan on Brazilian supply returning quickly, or on a price spike when it left, should check that plan against the numbers below.

What we assume, and why we could be wrong

  • We assume buyers who used Brazilian product are switching to EU or Ukrainian supply without paying much more. If a specific product has no good substitute, importers of that product will feel the gap and may pay a premium.
  • We assume producers keep placing chicks at the current pace. If the drought and heat of 2026 push feed costs up enough, weaker margins could slow placements, and supply would tighten in a few months.
  • We assume demand in the UK, the largest export market, holds steady. If it softens, more chicken stays inside the EU and prices fall further.
  • We treat Brazil's access as unresolved and make no call on when or whether it changes. If Brazilian volumes come back quickly, they add to a market that is already well supplied.

What the numbers actually say

The European Commission's poultry dashboard puts the EU average broiler price at €286.74 per 100 kg carcase weight in week 40. The dashboard shows that as 5.2% lower than a year earlier. For comparison, it lists the United States at €229.04 and Brazil at €141.01 per 100 kg.

Key figures from the Commission's data for January to June 2026 against the same months of 2025:

  • EU poultry meat production: up 5.5%.
  • EU poultry imports: up 13.2% to 573,037 tonnes. Brazil was up 44% to 263,764 tonnes, and Ukraine up 21.7% to 118,442 tonnes.
  • EU poultry exports: up 1.6% to about 1.04 million tonnes. The UK took 362,142 tonnes, flat on last year.

Poland is the largest producer, with 21% of EU output in 2025, followed by Spain, France, Germany and Italy.

Looking ahead, the US Department of Agriculture's September report, as summarised by Zootecnica on 2 October, expects EU chicken production to grow 3.4% in 2026 and about 2% in 2027, to 13 million tonnes. It forecasts imports falling from 740,000 tonnes in 2026 to 640,000 tonnes in 2027, on the assumption that Brazil stays excluded. It also notes that drought and heatwaves this year are expected to raise feed costs.

On Brazil, restrictions on its animal-product exports to the EU took effect on 3 September. An EU audit published on 28 September was favourable on poultry, and Brazil's agriculture ministry says further administrative steps are needed before exports restart, according to the same Zootecnica report. Food Safety News reported on 30 September that Brazil expects to be re-added to the list of approved poultry and honey suppliers after the audit's positive findings.

What we are watching next

We will watch the weekly Commission broiler price for a second consecutive month of weakness, which would confirm the supply story. We will also watch Polish and Hungarian slaughter data, since they drove the growth, and feed price moves that could change producers' placement decisions.

Sources

DG AGRI Dashboard: Poultry Meat - European Commission

EU chicken meat production forecast to reach 13 million tonnes in 2027 - Zootecnica International

Brazil expects EU poultry exports to resume after audit - Food Safety News