EU Cattle Prices Are 10% Below Last Year, and Cull Cows Are Falling Fastest

Published in Market Analysis

EU Cattle Prices Are 10% Below Last Year, and Cull Cows Are Falling Fastest

European Commission data shows EU young cattle prices about 10% below a year ago and cow prices down 16.5%, and our view is that Europe's beef market is splitting into a firm prime side and a much weaker cow side.

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Martina Osmak

Director of Marketing

MeatBorsa's take

This section is our reading of the market, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below.

Europe's beef price has turned. After a year of record cattle prices, the European Commission's latest weekly data puts young cattle about 10% below the same week of 2025. But the fall is not even, and the uneven part is the story.

Cull cows are down 16.5% on the year, much more than young bulls. By our own calculation from the Commission's figures, the gap between a young bull carcass and a cow carcass has widened from roughly €80 per 100 kg a year ago to about €113 today. In plain terms, Europe now has two beef markets: a prime side that is easing slowly, and a cow side that is falling fast.

We think the reason sits in the dairy sector, not in beef demand. Ireland's statistics office expects milk prices to be 18% lower in 2026 than in 2025, while farm input costs rise. When milk pays less, dairy farmers tend to send more older cows to slaughter, and most European cow beef comes from dairy herds. More cows at the plant means cheaper cow beef, which is the raw material for mince, burgers and processing.

For the next few months, we expect cow beef and manufacturing grades to stay the weaker part of the European market, and the price difference between processing beef and prime cuts to stay wide. Prime cattle are a different case. The supply of young animals is still limited, so we expect that side to keep drifting rather than dropping.

It is also worth keeping the scale in view. Even after the fall, EU male cattle prices are still almost three times the EU's own reference price. This is a correction from very high levels, not a collapse.

What we assume, and why we could be wrong

  • We assume weak milk prices keep cull cow supply high. If dairy farmers have already culled most of the cows they plan to, cow numbers at slaughter could thin out early in 2027 and cow prices could recover faster than we expect.
  • We assume the supply of young cattle stays limited. If more young stock comes forward than expected, prime cattle prices could fall as fast as cows, and the gap we describe would close from the top.
  • We assume shoppers have pulled back from beef at last year's high prices. If cheaper beef brings retail demand back quickly, the price fall could stop sooner.
  • One week and one country do not make a trend. The EU figures are a single weekly snapshot, and the Irish milk and cattle numbers are full-year projections for one country. Our reading links the two, and that link is an inference, not a measured fact.

What the numbers actually say

The European Commission published its weekly EU beef prices for week 43 (19 to 25 October 2026) on 29 October. Prices are in euros per 100 kg of carcass weight.

  • Young bovines, A-R3: €649.83, down 10.2% on the year.
  • Cows, D-O3: €537.02, down 16.5% on the year.
  • All male cattle, ACZ-R3: €642.22, down 10.3% on the year and almost flat on the week (-0.09%).
  • Beef-type male calves: €394.57 per head, down 14.5% on the year. Young store cattle were €4.71 per kg live, down 15.6%.

The ACZ-R3 price stands at 288.8% of the EU reference price. The Commission's beef page puts that reference at €2,224 per tonne, the level below which public intervention buying may apply.

Week to week, the market is barely moving. IndexBox, summarising the same Commission report on 5 November, noted that the price for young male cattle edged up 0.1% on the week, and that Greece, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Sweden did not send prices for that week.

In Ireland, the Central Statistics Office published its preliminary farm price estimates for 2026 on 6 November. It projects cattle prices 7.6% lower than in 2025, pig prices 12.5% lower and milk prices 18.1% lower. On the cost side, fertiliser is projected up 18.0% and energy up 17.9%. Overall, farm output prices are expected to fall 10.3% while input prices rise 6.5%, so the farmers' terms of trade drop by 15.8%.

What we are watching next

  • The gap between young bulls and cows in the next Commission weekly reports. If it keeps widening, our two-market reading holds. If it narrows, cow supply is likely thinning.
  • Milk prices in the main dairy countries. A recovery in milk prices would be the clearest sign that cull cow supply is about to slow.
  • Calf and store cattle prices. They fell almost as much as cows. Cheaper calves could shape how many young cattle are reared, and so the supply of prime beef in 2027 and 2028.
  • Retail beef prices. Whether lower cattle prices reach the shop shelf will tell us how quickly demand can respond.

Sources

EU Weekly Beef Prices, week 43 2026 - European Commission

Beef - Agriculture and rural development - European Commission

Agricultural Price Indices - Preliminary Estimates 2026 - Central Statistics Office

EU Beef Carcass Prices Edge Higher in Week 43, Observatory Data Show - IndexBox