Declining pig prices in Europe: what’s driving it, and what happens next

Published in Market Analysis

Declining pig prices in Europe: what’s driving it, and what happens next

European pig prices are declining because rising supply and heavier carcass weights are colliding with weak domestic and export demand—especially amid uncertainty in China—likely leading to continued margin pressure and eventual herd reductions before the market stabilizes.

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Martina Osmak

Director of Marketing

European pig (hog) prices have been on a downward track through the second half of 2025, with multiple market trackers pointing to a familiar squeeze: more pork available than buyers are currently willing (or able) to absorb at recent price levels. The decline is not being driven by a single shock. Instead, it reflects an overlap of supply growth, softer demand at home and abroad, and uncertainty in key export channels—especially where China is involved.

What we mean by “pig prices”

When analysts talk about “pig prices” they’re usually referring to farmgate prices for slaughter pigs—often expressed as an EU reference price (e.g., €/100 kg carcass weight) or as national benchmark prices. These indicators matter because they determine producer margins and influence decisions on herd size, feed usage, and slaughter timing.

1) The core driver: supply has been running ahead of demand

Rising availability in the EU

Industry reporting through late 2025 repeatedly highlights higher supply/production as a central reason prices are easing. In practical terms, supply pressure can come from:

  • More pigs being marketed (higher slaughter numbers)

  • Heavier carcass weights (more pork produced even if pig numbers are stable)

  • Improved productivity after prior contraction phases

AHDB’s EU market commentary notes EU reference prices trending down for months, explicitly tying the decline to higher supply paired with weaker demand. ThePigSite coverage (echoing the same market intelligence) points to the same dynamic: more production meeting softer buying interest.

Processing and “weight” effects amplify downside moves

Even when supply isn’t surging dramatically, operational bottlenecks can make the market feel “long.” If processing capacity, labor constraints, or logistics friction slow the flow, pigs can remain on farm longer and go to slaughter at heavier weights, pushing more tonnage into the market in a short window. Reporting such as Farmers Weekly has flagged heavier pigs and falling prices as compounding factors in parts of the market.

Bottom line: When supply momentum builds (in pigs or kilograms), prices typically soften unless demand expands fast enough to match it.

2) Demand has been weaker than the market needed

Domestic consumption isn’t absorbing the extra volume

In many EU countries, pork consumption growth is limited by:

  • Household budget pressure (trade-down behavior can cut premium cut demand)

  • Seasonal patterns (post-summer demand often cools)

  • Competition from poultry (often cheaper per protein unit and perceived as “lighter”)

Market updates in late 2025 describe demand as soft/weak, which matters because even small demand disappointments can move farmgate prices quickly when supply is abundant.

Export demand is also a key piece of the puzzle

Europe is not only feeding itself; it’s a major exporter. When global import demand cools—especially for the parts of the carcass that rely on export markets—European prices can drop faster. FAO commentary on late-2025 developments notes pig meat prices declining amid weaker global import demand, reinforcing the idea that Europe’s export channels have not provided the support they did in stronger years.

3) China: the biggest swing factor (and a source of uncertainty)

China’s role in European pork pricing is outsized because it buys significant volumes of specific products (including offal and cuts less valued domestically in Europe). When China imports less, the EU has to re-clear those volumes elsewhere—often at lower prices.

China’s domestic cycle can cap EU export pull

If China has ample domestic supply and lower internal prices, it tends to reduce import appetite. Several reports link trade decisions and pricing conditions to China’s domestic market situation.

Trade policy risk adds volatility

Late 2025 reporting highlighted developments around China’s tariff/probe actions affecting EU pork. Even when measures are adjusted or reduced, uncertainty itself can chill trade flows and pricing confidence. The presence (or threat) of anti-dumping actions changes exporter behavior, contracting patterns, and risk premia—often weighing on prices during the period of uncertainty.

Why this matters: Even if EU domestic fundamentals were neutral, export uncertainty can still push the balance toward lower farmgate prices.

4) What will the outcome be?

A) Producer margins tighten → herd decisions follow

When pig prices fall, producers’ response typically follows the economics:

  • If margins turn negative, farms may reduce placements, cut expansion plans, or accelerate exits.

  • If margins are merely thin, producers may focus on cost control and ride out the cycle.

This is why some industry commentary frames the move as part of a broader down-cycle heading into 2026: lower prices pressure profitability, and profitability determines how much supply shows up later.

B) Supply eventually reacts, but with a lag

Pig production doesn’t change overnight. Even if producers decide to cut back, it takes time for:

  • breeding decisions to translate into fewer market hogs,

  • lower weights to show up in tonnage,

  • national herds to shift meaningfully.

So the likely near-term outcome is continued sensitivity to weekly slaughter volumes, weights, and demand swings, rather than an instant rebound.

C) Market “clearing” may come through three channels

  1. Supply adjustment: fewer pigs / lighter weights over time

  2. Demand improvement: seasonal uplift, better retail movement, foodservice recovery

  3. Export relief: clearer trade conditions and stronger buying from key destinations

D) Wildcards that can reverse trends quickly

  • Animal disease events (e.g., ASF-related trade bans or regional supply disruptions) can reshuffle trade and pricing abruptly.

  • Feed cost shocks can change production incentives and liquidation speeds.

  • Policy/trade shifts can reopen (or close) markets quickly.

Outlook: what to watch over the next 3–6 months

If you’re trying to judge whether the decline continues or stabilizes, the most useful signals are:

  • EU reference pig price trend (week-to-week) and national benchmarks

  • Slaughter numbers and carcass weights (tonnage can rise even if headcount doesn’t)

  • Retail/consumer demand indicators (promotional activity, substitution toward poultry)

  • Export volumes and especially China-related trade flow indicators

  • Any changes in trade measures affecting EU pork access

A sustained rebound typically requires either a credible supply tightening, a demand pickup, or export support—ideally more than one at the same time.

Sources used:

Declining pig prices in Europe: what’s driving it, and what happens next | MeatBorsa News