Published in Market Analysis
Brazil Is Filling Europe's Meat Gap, While EU Pork Sells to South Korea Instead of China
The European Commission's autumn 2026 outlook shows EU poultry imports up 17.1% and beef imports up 5%, while pork sales to China fall 32%, and our view is that the EU meat trade is being rerouted rather than simply growing or shrinking.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our reading of the numbers, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below.
We think the most useful way to read the European Commission's latest meat outlook is as a story about direction of travel, not size. EU meat is not simply growing or shrinking in 2026. It is being rerouted. More poultry and beef is coming in, mostly from Brazil. Pork is going out, but to different customers than a year ago.
The clearest signal is poultry. EU chicken output is forecast to grow 3.3%, the strongest of the main meats, and imports are still forecast to rise 17.1%. That tells us that even a growing EU poultry sector is not covering all of the demand that importers are filling, and that Brazilian product is competing hard on what it offers.
Beef is the tighter picture. EU production is forecast down 2.2%, and imports are forecast up 5%, mainly from Brazilian supplies the outlook describes as frontloaded. Our reading is that "frontloaded" matters: cargoes that arrive early are cargoes that are not available later, so the pace of Brazilian beef arrivals we see now may not be the pace of the months ahead.
Pork is the mirror image. EU production is forecast to edge up 0.5%, but sales to China are down 32%, and sales to South Korea are up 53%. We think that is a sign that EU pork sellers have been finding other doors, not that demand has disappeared.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
- We assume Brazilian sellers keep offering poultry and beef into the EU at prices that European buyers find competitive. If Brazilian cargoes slow, for logistics or availability reasons, the import growth in the outlook could fade quickly.
- We assume the frontloading in beef means the second half of the import year is lighter than the first. If Brazilian cattle supply or shipping capacity allows steady volumes, beef imports could keep climbing instead.
- We assume pork exporters keep finding buyers in markets like South Korea at a similar pace. A single large market is easier to lose than to replace, and a 53% rise comes from a small starting base, so it could cool.
- We assume poultry supply in the EU stays roughly on forecast. Outbreaks of avian influenza, which the outlook itself names as a trade uncertainty, could cut local output and push imports even higher.
What the numbers actually say
The European Commission publishes a short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, and its autumn 2026 edition has been updated with meat and dairy data. The figures below are 2026 year-on-year forecasts from that outlook, as also reported by pig333 / 3tres3 on 5 November 2026.
- Beef: production down 2.2%, exports down 2% (with shipments to Turkey up 53%), imports up 5%.
- Pork: production up 0.5%, total exports down 0.5%, exports to China down 32%, exports to South Korea up 53%.
- Poultry: production up 3.3%, imports up 17.1% (Brazil up 55%, Ukraine up 23%), exports up 1%.
- Sheep and goat meat: production down 4.4%, meat exports up 5%, with demand from Algeria and the United Kingdom.
The Commission's poultry page adds context: the EU produces more than 13 million tonnes of poultry meat a year, is a net exporter, and imports mainly from Brazil, Ukraine and Thailand.
There is a similar rerouting inside Europe. According to pig333 / 3tres3, using Dutch RVO data published on 6 November, Dutch exports of pigs for slaughter fell 20.2% to 274,526 head in weeks 1 to 39 of 2026. Exports to Spain fell 66%, while exports to Belgium rose more than five-fold.
What we are watching next
- Whether monthly import data confirms the Brazilian beef pace slowing after the early arrivals.
- Whether South Korea keeps absorbing the pork that used to go to China.
- Avian influenza detections in major EU poultry regions, since they could change the local supply picture.
- The next update of the Commission's meat market dashboards, to see whether poultry import growth holds above 15%.
Sources
Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, Autumn 2026 edition - European Commission
Poultry - European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development
EU pork production to increase slightly amid mixed livestock outlook - pig333 / 3tres3
Dutch exports of pigs for slaughter fall by 20% through September 2026 - pig333 / 3tres3