Bird Flu Returns to Europe's Poultry Farms as Newcastle Disease Spreads

Europe's poultry sector has entered autumn with two disease problems at once, and both of them can move trade.

The autumn bird flu season has opened in France and Bulgaria

In the last days of August, veterinary services in France and Bulgaria each confirmed their first highly pathogenic avian influenza case of the new season. Both involved ducks, and both were caused by the H5N1 virus.

In France, the virus was found in a flock of about 7,600 ducks in Maine-et-Loire, in the west of the country, roughly 200 km south-west of Paris. Around 150 birds died. The birds had already been vaccinated, which matters because France has required vaccination of commercial ducks against H5N1 since October 2023. Since that first case, the French agriculture ministry has reported the virus at two more commercial sites in the same department.

Bulgaria's case came after five quiet months. The national animal health agency told the World Organisation for Animal Health that H5N1 had been found in a flock of 14,000 mallard ducks in the central province of Plovdiv, where about 260 birds died.

Where Europe stands after a heavy year

The European Commission's Animal Disease Information System gives a useful picture of scale. As of 2 September, the numbers for 2026 so far were:

313 outbreaks on commercial poultry farms in 16 countries, all linked to H5N1
Poland with 143 outbreaks, ahead of Germany with 40, France with 21 and Italy with 19
119 outbreaks in captive birds, such as backyard flocks and zoos, across 15 countries
2,681 detections in wild birds in 32 countries, compared with 4,751 in the whole of 2025

For context, 23 countries reported 729 commercial poultry outbreaks during all of 2025. So the farm count this year is lower, but the season that matters most is only starting now.

Wild bird migration is the reason. As birds move south across Europe in autumn, the chance of the virus reaching commercial flocks rises. Germany's national reference laboratory, the Friedrich-Loeffler Institute, has already lifted its risk rating for spread among wild birds in the country to "moderate", while keeping the risk to commercial poultry and captive birds at "low".

Newcastle disease opens a second front

Bird flu is not the only virus in play. Newcastle disease, a separate poultry disease that also causes heavy mortality, has been active in several European countries this year.

Poland reports its first case since June

On 8 September, the World Organisation for Animal Health recorded Newcastle disease in a commercial laying hen flock in Przyczyna Dolna, Poland. The flock held 78,673 birds and 8,440 of them died.

That case ended a quiet period of several months. Poland has been the country worst affected worldwide over the past two years, with more than 140 flocks lost since September 2024.

Hungary records its first outbreak ever

Hungary confirmed Newcastle disease for the first time in its history. Two commercial broiler flocks in Kecskemét tested positive, one with 124,000 birds and the other with 95,000, so about 219,000 birds in total.

Testing was done by real-time PCR at the Veterinary Diagnostic Directorate of the National Food Chain Safety Office. The control measures are the standard ones: culling, disinfection, traceability, zoning, surveillance inside the restricted zone and official disposal of carcasses and waste. Surveillance outside the restricted zone is also planned.

The source of the infection is listed as unknown. That is worth noting, because none of the other countries with active Newcastle disease reports, including Poland, Spain, Germany, Peru, Israel, Singapore, Malaysia and Burkina Faso, share a border with Hungary.

Trade flows are shifting at the same time

While disease pressure builds, European poultry trade is also being reshaped by quotas rather than by viruses.

The revised free trade agreement between the European Union and Ukraine entered into force on 29 October 2025 and set a poultry tariff-rate quota of 120,000 tonnes. That is more than the pre-war quota of 90,000 tonnes, but less than the 133,283 tonnes allowed under the temporary trade measures used in 2024 and part of 2025.

The United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, in a report published on 19 August, expects Ukrainian exporters to push harder into the United Kingdom as a result, and says the UK may pass the Netherlands as Ukraine's largest single-country market. Ukraine can ship poultry to Britain with no quota and no import duty until March 2028.

The volumes are already meaningful. According to Britain's National Farmers' Union, the UK imported 43,409 tonnes of Ukrainian poultry meat in the first ten months of 2025, plus 11,901 tonnes of shell eggs and egg products. The NFU has asked for close monitoring of trade flows and has said it is concerned about the effect on domestic producers.

Ukrainian export growth is expected to continue anyway. The USDA forecast puts Ukrainian chicken meat exports at around 450,000 tonnes in 2025, 490,000 tonnes in 2026 and 530,000 tonnes in 2027. The agency also notes that the European Union stays attractive because of its size, short distance and better prices, so not every tonne blocked by the quota will simply move to Britain.

What buyers and sellers should watch

The practical risk for traders is not the headline case count. It is what happens around each outbreak.

Zoning and restricted areas can delay loadings from a specific region even when the rest of the country keeps trading normally
Duck and turkey supply is usually hit first, because these species have been prominent in this season's cases
Non-EU buyers may suspend a whole country rather than a region, so export paperwork can change quickly
Alternative origins inside Europe become more valuable when one supplying country is restricted, which usually shows up in price before it shows up in volume

Autumn is when both of these diseases tend to accelerate in Europe. Contracts signed now for winter delivery should allow for the possibility that a supplying region is restricted before the product ships.