Published in Market Analysis
Australia's Beef Exports Slipped in October, and the US Is Carrying the Load
Australian beef shipments fell 8% year on year in October as China stayed shut behind a 55% tariff, and our view is that the record US volume is hiding a thinner export year than the headline suggests.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our own reading of the news, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below it.
We think Australia's beef export year has quietly changed shape. For most of 2026 the story was a record pace. October broke that pattern: shipments fell 8% from a year earlier, and the country that is picking up the slack is the United States, not China. In our view, the year-end total will land well short of the record some forecasts promised, and the reason is not weak demand. It is a mix of a shut Chinese door and very expensive cattle at home.
Two things push in the same direction. Australian cattle are costly, even by the standards of the buyers who want them: feeder steers in northern Australia were trading at about A$4.50 to A$4.60 per kg liveweight in mid-October, which puts them close to what Indonesian and Vietnamese buyers pay for local slaughter steers. That is squeezing live cattle exports, and it keeps meat processors competing for the same animals. At the same time, the US is taking record volume, but US lean trim prices have fallen to their lowest point of the year, according to Canfax. Record volume into a weakening price is a combination that usually leaves less margin for the shipper.
For European buyers, the point worth noticing is how small Europe is in this picture. Australia sent only 753 tonnes of beef to the EU in October. The country's export engine is pointed at the US, Japan, South Korea and China, and what happens there shapes global beef prices more than any direct flow into Europe does.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
- We assume US importers keep absorbing Australian lean beef at the current pace. If US demand cools or other suppliers fill that space, the October dip could turn into a larger fall.
- We assume Australian cattle stay expensive. The prices Indonesian and Vietnamese buyers face suggest the market is already bidding hard for animals. If supply of cattle loosens, processing volumes and export tonnage could recover faster than we expect.
- We assume October's weakness is more than a one-month event. Beef Central's headline points to a rain event as an early factor. Weather effects can reverse quickly, so a rebound in November would make our reading look too cautious.
- We assume the China tariff keeps Chinese volume low until the end of the year. That is already in force through 31 December, so we treat it as a fact. How much of the Chinese gap other buyers fill is the open question.
What the numbers actually say
Beef Central, citing Australian export data published on 3 November 2026, reported that October beef exports were 128,836 tonnes. That is 3% below September and 8% below October 2025. For the first ten months of the year, exports total 1.338 million tonnes, which is 71,000 tonnes above the same period last year.
Beef Central also noted that the 1.646 million tonne full-year forecast issued by Meat and Livestock Australia in September now looks too high, and said a figure a little over 1.5 million tonnes is more realistic.
Key destinations for October, as reported by Beef Central:
- United States: 42,981 tonnes, up 3% on a year earlier. The year-to-date total of 421,565 tonnes is a record and 14% higher than last year.
- China: 10,852 tonnes. The year-to-date total is 173,800 tonnes, against about 223,000 tonnes in the same ten months of 2025. A 55% tariff applies to volumes through 31 December.
- Japan: 22,796 tonnes, down 16% year on year.
- South Korea: 17,239 tonnes, with 223,916 tonnes so far this year.
- United Kingdom: 1,490 tonnes in October and 17,583 tonnes so far this year, up 24%.
- European Union: 753 tonnes.
On the cattle side, a separate Beef Central report from 29 October put Australia's live cattle exports 23.5% lower than a year ago. From January to September, 447,101 head were shipped, with Indonesia taking 352,197 head, down 14.2%. The same report said Indonesia's domestic price caps are making trading conditions difficult for buyers facing Australian prices.
Canfax, in its weekly update dated 2 November 2026, listed US 50% trim prices at their lowest of the year, alongside record-high Choice rib prices and a sharp drop in US feeder cattle contracts.
What we are watching next
We are watching the November export figure, due in early December, to see whether October was a pause or the start of a lower trend. We are also watching whether the US trim price recovers while Australian volume stays high, and whether Japan's 16% drop in October was a one-off. A useful question for any supplier selling Australian beef into Europe or the UK is which of their lots come from the cuts that the US and Asian buyers are competing for.
Sources
Rain event starts to impact Australia's October beef exports - Beef Central
Canfax Weekly Update: Report for the week of November 2, 2026 - ABP Daily