Published in Market Analysis
Algeria Is Taking Far More EU Lamb This Year, and Jordan Far Less
European Commission data shows EU lamb exports to Algeria up 63% in January to May while Jordan fell 32% and imports kept rising, and our view is that EU lamb is being pulled in two directions at once.
Martina Osmak
Director of Marketing
MeatBorsa's take
This section is our reading of the numbers, not reported fact. The confirmed figures follow below, with their dates.
We think EU lamb is being pulled two ways at the same time. Outside the EU, one buyer, Algeria, has become much more important this year, and an older buyer, Jordan, has become much less important. Inside the EU, the bloc relies a little more on imported lamb than it did a year ago. Put together, that looks to us like a market where the destination matters more than the headline export total.
The most useful detail is timing. The Commission's July factsheet showed EU sheepmeat exports down 13.9% in January to March. Its later dashboard shows exports up 7% for January to May. That swing means April and May were very strong. We think this fits the Eid al-Adha buying season, but this is our inference. The sources do not say it.
A second point is the price split. In the Commission's figures, heavy lamb carcasses were cheaper in week 35 than in week 28, while light lamb carcasses were dearer. We read this as a sign that the market for lighter carcasses is stronger than the market for heavy ones.
What we assume, and why we could be wrong
- We assume the April and May jump in exports was seasonal. If Algerian buyers are in fact building a lasting position in EU lamb, the pattern would look different in the autumn data.
- We assume light and heavy lamb are pulled by different buyers. If the week 28 and week 35 gap comes from the way different member states report prices, the split would be smaller than it looks.
- We assume imports stay high because southern hemisphere supply is thinner, not because EU demand is rising. If EU demand were the driver, imports would be rising faster than production is falling.
- We assume the older figures still describe the market. Most of the data below runs only to May or to week 35, so newer prices could already have moved.
What the numbers actually say
The European Commission publishes a weekly sheep meat dashboard. The version we used is listed on the Commission's site under 29 October 2026, but the file itself says "Last update 02/09/2026" and shows price data for week 35. We therefore treat its figures as data to week 35 and to May, not as current prices.
Key figures from that dashboard:
- The EU average carcass price for heavy lamb was €895.8 per 100 kg in week 35. Light lamb was €983.3 per 100 kg.
- EU sheepmeat exports in January to May 2026 were 52,319 tonnes, up 7% on a year earlier. Algeria took 28,476 tonnes, up 63% from 17,458. Israel rose 41% to 5,839 tonnes. Jordan fell 32% to 5,141 tonnes.
- EU sheepmeat imports in January to May were 85,691 tonnes, up 4%. New Zealand supplied 40,547 tonnes (up 9%) and the UK 38,414 tonnes (down 1%).
- The Commission's forecast puts EU sheep and goat meat self-sufficiency at 83.6% in 2026, down from 86.0% in 2025.
The Commission's meat and eggs market factsheet, with data for week 28 and the first quarter, adds context:
- Heavy lamb averaged €920 per 100 kg in week 28, up 3.3% on the year. Light lamb averaged €945, up 5.2%.
- Extra-EU sheepmeat exports in January to March were 21,745 tonnes, down 13.9%. Imports were 50,727 tonnes, up 18.6%.
- The factsheet quotes the Australian industry body MLA, which forecasts Australian lamb production to fall 10% in 2026, and reports New Zealand's kill down 5% over the first 27 weeks of the year.
- Irish processors were quoting about €8.80 per kg for heavy lambs in the factsheet's week 28 data, with most setting a 21.5 kg carcass weight limit.
Bord Bia, the Irish food board, adds an older but useful marker. Its snapshot for the week ending 21 March showed Irish lamb throughput 10% ahead of the previous year, which it linked to the end of Ramadan. That shows how strongly religious calendars can move volumes in this market.
What we are watching next
- Whether the Commission's next sheep meat dashboard shows Algeria holding its share of exports after the Eid season.
- Whether Jordan's volumes recover or keep falling.
- Whether the gap between light and heavy lamb carcass prices widens or narrows in the weekly Commission data.
- Whether import volumes from New Zealand keep rising while New Zealand's own kill is down.
- A question a reader may want to put to suppliers: which export destinations their lamb volumes depend on, and how much of that demand comes from a single holiday period.
Sources
Dashboard: Sheep meat - European Commission, DG AGRI
Meat and eggs market situation factsheet - European Commission, DG AGRI