African Swine Fever in Europe: Where Cases Are Rising and Falling in 2026

African Swine Fever, or ASF, is still one of the biggest animal health worries for the European pig sector in 2026. The virus does not harm people, and meat from infected animals is not a risk to human health. But it is almost always deadly for pigs, and it forces large culls that disrupt farms and trade. New data from the first half of 2026 shows a mixed picture across Europe. Some countries are improving, while others face sharp increases.

The big picture in Europe

During the first half of 2026, the European Union and nearby countries recorded 5,905 ASF outbreaks. Wild boar remain the main carrier of the virus and account for most of these cases.

Here are the key numbers for January to June 2026:

Wild boar: 5,589 outbreaks across 15 countries, down about 15.6% compared with the same period in 2025 (6,621).
Domestic pigs on farms: 316 outbreaks in 11 countries, down about 24% from 418 in the first half of 2025.

So the overall trend is slightly better than last year. But the national picture is very uneven.

The countries with the most wild boar cases in the first half of 2026 were:

Poland: 1,425
Lithuania: 832
Italy: 823
Germany: 621
Hungary: 491
Latvia: 416
Romania: 284
Bulgaria: 277

Where cases are rising

Some countries saw strong increases. In Italy, wild boar outbreaks nearly doubled, going from 430 to 823, a rise of about 91%. Lithuania rose by around 78%, from 468 to 832.

On farms, the biggest concern is Serbia. Domestic pig outbreaks there jumped from 20 in the first half of 2025 to 152 in the same period of 2026. That makes Serbia the most affected country in Europe for farm outbreaks this year. Croatia also rose, from 1 to 26.

Where cases are falling

Other countries brought their numbers down. Germany cut wild boar outbreaks from 1,612 to 621, a drop of about 61%. Poland fell from 2,374 to 1,425, down around 40%.

Hungary and Latvia also saw fewer wild boar cases, and Greece dropped from 74 cases to just one. On the farm side, Romania reduced its domestic pig outbreaks from 176 to 110. Even so, Romania stays one of the most affected countries.

New farm outbreaks in summer 2026

Recent monitoring in July 2026 shows the virus is still reaching commercial farms, which is the situation traders watch most closely.

Germany reported a new outbreak in kept pigs at a farm in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, affecting about 3,000 fattening pigs.
In North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, the virus found on a farm was genetically linked to southern Italy. This points to a new introduction from far away rather than local spread, and shows how easily the virus can travel through human activity.
Latvia confirmed its first farm outbreak of the year at one of the country's largest commercial operations, with more than 22,000 pigs on the site.

The problem is not limited to Europe. In South Korea, about 25,000 pigs were culled after ASF was detected, a reminder that the disease is a worldwide challenge.

The global scale of the problem

ASF has spread widely since 2022. According to the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), 85 countries and territories have reported the disease since January 2022.

WOAH counts more than 1.14 million cases in domestic pigs and around 52,500 cases in wild boar over that time, with over 2.5 million pig losses. The organisation stresses that ASF remains a global threat. It urges producers and traders to keep strict biosecurity, report suspected cases early, and stay alert across the whole supply chain.

What this means for buyers and sellers

For anyone trading pigs or pork, the key issue is not human safety but market disruption. When an outbreak is confirmed, authorities set up protection and surveillance zones fast. These zones limit the movement of live pigs and pig products, and they can delay or block shipments.

Here is what buyers and sellers should keep in mind:

Restriction zones can stop the movement of pigs and pig products quickly, which creates delays and paperwork.
Prices and availability can move when large farms are culled, especially at regional level.
The country of origin and its zoning status matter a lot for cross-border deals.
Good biosecurity and clean transport lower the risk of spreading the virus between farms and regions.

The first half of 2026 brought some relief in major countries such as Germany and Poland. But rising farm cases in Serbia and Croatia, fresh outbreaks in Germany and Latvia, and continued pressure in Italy show the risk is far from over. Traders across Europe should keep watching official updates and plan for sudden movement restrictions.