African Swine Fever Hits Serbia and Italy: What Pork Buyers Should Watch

African swine fever (ASF) is once again pressuring pig farmers in Europe, with a large outbreak in Serbia and fresh cases in central Italy. The disease does not harm people, but it is almost always deadly for pigs, and there is still no vaccine. For meat buyers and traders, the bigger story is what these outbreaks do to supply, farm rules, and trade flows.

Serbia faces one of its worst outbreaks in years

Serbia is dealing with African swine fever for the second time in three years. According to the country's Ministry of Agriculture, the virus has now been confirmed across a wide area of the country.

The scale of the outbreak is serious:

Cases confirmed in 7 districts, 12 municipalities, and 58 localities
A total of 734 affected farms
A state of emergency declared in 9 municipalities
Around 30,000 pigs dead or culled to stop the spread

The first mass cull, of about 11,000 animals, was ordered on 9 July at a farm in Hrtkovci, roughly 70 kilometres from Belgrade. Because there is no vaccine, any confirmed case leads to the immediate, preventive killing of the affected herd.

There are early signs the situation is calming. Officials reported that Monday 27 July was the first day with no new outbreaks, and one industry representative told Bloomberg Adria the problem could be under control by the middle of August.

Why the timing is difficult for Serbia

The outbreak arrived when Serbia already had its smallest pig herd in a decade. National statistics showed about 2.4 million pigs on 1 December 2025, which is 13.9% below the ten-year average for 2014 to 2024. By May 2026, before the outbreak began, numbers were already down almost 15% year on year.

This matters for trade. After the wave of infections stops, affected farms will face a six-month ban on restocking their barns. In practice, that means bringing in new fattening pigs may only be possible from next year.

What it could mean for pork prices and imports

Serbia normally produces around 60% of the pork it consumes and imports the rest, mainly from Russia and Spain. With local supply under pressure, the country is expected to buy more pork for processing into products such as cured meats.

A few points buyers and sellers should keep in mind:

Officials expect enough fresh pork for the domestic market, but more imports of pork for processing
Only a small rise in pork product prices is expected, not a sharp jump
Serbian meat imports have grown strongly over the years, from 5 million euros in 2006 to a record 256 million euros in 2024
Pork imports alone were worth about 213.5 million euros in 2025

Eating habits are also shifting. Serbian figures for June 2026 show pork consumption falling from around 18 to 15 kilograms per person, while poultry rose from 15 to 18 kilograms.

Italy tightens controls in Tuscany

Italy is also on alert. After ASF cases were found in the provinces of Pistoia and Massa-Carrara, the Siena area raised concerns about health blocks and extra checks weighing on local farms.

In response, the Tuscany region, the Italian agriculture ministry (Masaf), and the farmers' association CIA set out extraordinary measures against the disease. These include:

Special exceptions to the Cinta Senese protected-origin (DOP) rules, to allow stronger biosecurity on farms
A plan to contain the wild boar population, which can carry the virus
Dedicated compensation for affected producers

The Cinta Senese is a well-known local pig breed, so the changes show how far authorities are willing to go to protect both animal health and a valued regional product.

The takeaway for the meat trade

African swine fever remains a live risk across Europe, and its effects reach well beyond the farm gate. Culls reduce local supply, restocking bans slow the recovery, and importers may need to look further afield to fill gaps.

For MeatBorsa users, the practical message is to watch supply and pricing in the Balkans and central Europe closely over the coming months, and to keep flexible sourcing options in mind while affected regions rebuild their herds.