UK Sheep Meat Production to Rise in 2025 Despite Challenges
UK sheep meat production is set to grow by 2% in 2025, driven by a higher carryover of lambs from 2024, despite challenges like a shrinking breeding flock and shifting consumer demand.
Sheep meat production in the UK is expected to rise in 2025, reaching 272,000 tonnes. This 2% increase comes despite several challenges facing the industry, according to new analysis from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).
More Lambs Available for Slaughter
The main reason for this growth is the higher number of lambs carried over from 2024. This will lead to more sheep being slaughtered in the first half of the year. However, looking ahead, the number of lambs born in the 2025/26 season is predicted to drop by 2%, bringing the total to 15.5 million.
This decline is due to a shrinking breeding flock, which is expected to reduce by 2.5% compared to last year. AHDB’s senior analyst, Becky Smith, highlighted that this could be a concern for the long-term future of sheep meat production.
"The extra lambs from 2024 will help increase production in the short term, but maintaining flock numbers is becoming a challenge," Smith explained. "This could affect lamb supply in the coming years."
Demand for UK Lamb Remains Strong
Despite the smaller lamb crop, UK lamb remains in demand. Exports are expected to rise by 0.9% in 2025, with the European Union, especially France, continuing to be the biggest buyer of British sheep meat.
At the same time, imports of lamb are likely to fall by 13% as domestic supply increases. However, import levels are still relatively high compared to previous years.
Domestic Consumption to Decline Slightly
On the home front, demand for lamb is set to drop by 2% in 2025. This comes after a particularly strong year in 2024, when demand was higher than usual. Economic uncertainty and fewer promotional discounts on lamb are expected to play a role in this decline.
"With fewer price promotions and people watching their spending, we expect a slight dip in lamb sales," Smith said. "However, ready-to-cook lamb products and meal deals could help keep consumer interest alive."
A Mixed Year for Sheep Meat Production
In summary, while lamb production will be higher in early 2025, slaughter numbers in the second half of the year are expected to be more stable. Carcase weights are also predicted to remain steady, leading to an overall modest increase in production for the year.
Despite some challenges, the UK sheep meat industry is holding strong. With continued demand from export markets and creative product offerings in retail, the sector is finding ways to navigate the shifting landscape.