Market Pulse: Moldova's Pig Crisis, UK Bird Flu Spikes, and Global Halal Deal

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Market Pulse: Moldova's Pig Crisis, UK Bird Flu Spikes, and Global Halal Deal

Eastern Europe faces ASF fallout while UK poultry sector battles rapid virus spread

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Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer

Eastern Europe: Moldova's Pig Sector Shrinks 30% Amid ASF Crisis

A severe crisis is unfolding in Moldova, where African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks have wiped out nearly one-third of the country's pig population in the last year. The devastation has triggered a sharp rise in domestic pork prices and forced local processors to look urgently to EU markets for raw material.

Implications

  • Regional Supply Squeeze: The collapse in Moldovan production will likely increase demand for pork imports from neighboring Romania and potentially Bulgaria, tightening regional supplies further.

  • Price Inflation: With local supply decimated, pork prices in the non-EU Balkans are expected to remain elevated through Q1 2026.

  • Biosecurity Warning: The rapid spread in Moldova serves as a stark warning for the fragile recovery of Bulgaria’s own pig sector, which remains vulnerable to cross-border viral transmission.

Suggested Actions

  • Export Opportunities: Pork exporters in Central Europe should prioritize logistics routes to Moldova to fill the immediate vacuum.

  • Heightened Vigilance: Balkan pig farmers must reinforce perimeter biosecurity immediately, as the high viral load in the region increases the risk of new outbreaks.

UK: Bird Flu Escalates with 4 New Commercial Outbreaks in 4 Days

The UK poultry sector is on high alert following a rapid escalation of H5N1 avian influenza cases. Between November 27 and November 30, Defra confirmed four separate outbreaks at large commercial premises in Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire, Somerset, and Norfolk. Tens of thousands of birds, including broiler breeders and ducks, are being culled.

Implications

  • Christmas Supply Risks: While retailers claim turkey supplies are secure, the loss of breeder flocks and ducks could create spot shortages or price spikes for specific festive poultry lines.

  • Trade Barriers: This cluster of cases may trigger renewed temporary import bans from non-EU trading partners, complicating export logistics for British producers.

Suggested Actions

  • Housing Orders: Commercial producers should operate as if a national housing order is imminent, ensuring all birds are kept indoors or fully netted where possible.

  • Review Insurance: Producers should urgently review their disease interruption insurance policies, as the "worst-case" winter scenario appears to be materializing.

Global Trade: Pakistan Targets $200M Halal Meat Exports to Malaysia

In a significant trade development, Pakistan and Malaysia have signed a new agreement targeting $200 million in halal meat exports to Malaysia over the next 3-5 years. Pakistan is actively upgrading its foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) protocols and slaughterhouse standards to meet Malaysia's strict certification requirements.

Implications

  • New Competition: This deal signals Pakistan's emergence as a more organized player in the Asian halal market, potentially challenging established exporters like India and Australia in the long term.

  • Standardization: The push for Malaysian-compliant certification will likely raise the overall quality and safety standards of Pakistan's export-oriented meat sector.

Suggested Actions

  • Halal Certification: Global meat traders looking to supply Southeast Asia should ensure their halal certifications are universally recognized, as Malaysia often sets the benchmark for the region.

Sources