Market Pulse: Estonia ASF fallout, EU pig prices ease, Waitrose free-range pledge
Published 13 days ago in News

Market Pulse: Estonia ASF fallout, EU pig prices ease, Waitrose free-range pledge

New ASF pressure in Estonia, softer EU prices, and a major UK retailer welfare shift—what it means for buyers, suppliers, and processors.

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Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer

Estonia has reported a major ASF outbreak at a commercial farm, leading to staff cuts. EU pig carcass prices eased again week-on-week, pointing to a softer balance into Q4. In the UK, Waitrose pledged to move entirely to free-range British pork by 2027, signalling structural demand for higher-welfare supply.

Estonia: ASF hits major commercial farm, workforce cuts announced

What happened: A large Estonian pig unit has reported heavy ASF losses, forcing management to reduce staff as herds are culled and operations scale down. National authorities have reinforced movement controls and ramped up surveillance.

Why it matters: The outbreak demonstrates how ASF at scale impacts not just supply but labour and operational continuity. Buyers sourcing Baltic pork should prepare for tighter supply and heightened transport protocols.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Processors/traders: Re-evaluate reliance on Baltic suppliers; secure alternates in Poland or Germany.

  • Logistics teams: Build in extra time for truck disinfection and route controls.

  • Retail/HoReCa: Keep substitution options for belly, shoulder, and offal SKUs.

EU pig carcass prices: latest weekly decline shows softer balance

What happened: The Commission’s latest update shows average pig carcass prices slipping further week-on-week and below 2024 levels.

Why it matters: After a summer plateau, the EU price trend has turned decisively softer. Disease flare-ups may create localised premiums, but the broader balance looks easier heading into Q4.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Buyers: Lock in Q4 volumes on dips; keep flexible specifications by origin.

  • Sellers: Protect margins; emphasise origin and certification to sustain differentiation.

Waitrose commits to 100% free-range British pork by 2027

What happened: Waitrose announced all own-label British pork will be free-range by 2027, beginning with fresh cuts this autumn, supported by 10-year farmer contracts.

Why it matters: This is a structural demand push for higher-welfare UK pork, likely to lift premiums and widen the welfare gap with standard imports.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • UK farmers: Start aligning infrastructure and traceability to free-range standards.

  • Retailers: Position welfare commitments clearly; expect consumer scrutiny of labelling.

  • EU exporters: Monitor whether UK retail moves spur similar welfare requirements elsewhere.

Sources