Market Pulse: Croatia’s ASF cull, H1 pork exports up; UK beef & lamb output dips
Published 14 days ago in News

Market Pulse: Croatia’s ASF cull, H1 pork exports up; UK beef & lamb output dips

Disease pressure in CEE and mixed supply trends—here’s what it means for processors, traders and retailers this week.

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Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer

Croatia orders cull of nearly 12,000 pigs amid African swine fever (ASF) outbreak

What happened: Croatian authorities mandated the culling of almost 12,000 pigs following confirmed ASF cases in Osijek-Baranja county, including a large unit in Sokolovac. Border and transport controls have been tightened, with enforcement against illegal movements and instructions to reduce wild-boar vectors.

Why it matters: This is a fresh escalation on the EU’s eastern flank and risks short-term supply disruption in the Western Balkans and nearby markets. While ASF is not a human health risk, movement bans and culls can abruptly tighten availability of certain pork cuts and casings.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Processors/traders: Review contracted volumes ex-Croatia/Serbia/BiH. Build contingency suppliers and adjust specs for trim/offal where needed to keep lines running.

  • Retail/HoReCa buyers: Expect spot price noise on selected pork items; consider forward-cover on Q4 promos with flexible cut substitution.

  • All operators: Re-check biosecurity & transport disinfection SOPs for live animals and raw materials moving across CEE corridors.

EU pork trade: H1 2025 exports up 1% to 2.96m t; China still top destination

What happened: AHDB reports EU pig-meat (incl. offal) exports +1% YoY in H1 to 2.96m tonnes; 574.5k tonnes went to China (+4% YoY) pre-September’s provisional anti-dumping duties.

Why it matters: The data captures the pre-tariff baseline. From mid-September, EU shipments to China face 15.6%–62.4% deposits/duties, likely re-routing more offal into alternate markets or into domestic processing—pressure on offal values, mixed on primal cuts.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Exporters: Accelerate market diversification (Mexico, Philippines, Vietnam, Sub-Saharan Africa) for offal inventories; adapt specs/pack sizes.

  • Importers in EU/UK: Watch for softer offal prices and more competitive trim as flows shift; negotiate mixed-carton programs.

  • Finance/logistics: Expect credit & transit-time extensions while new lanes stabilise.

UK August production: beef −4% MoM; sheepmeat −2%

What happened: AHDB’s latest update shows UK beef output −4% MoM in August; average prime cattle carcase weights nudged up to 350kg. Sheepmeat output eased 2% MoM to 20.4k t.

Why it matters: UK supply looks tighter on beef into early autumn, with sheep throughputs mixed. For EU buyers, UK export availability may be patchier on certain specs; domestic UK buyers may see firm-to-steady beef pricing into Q4.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • EU buyers: If sourcing UK beef primals, spread suppliers and consider Ireland/continental alternatives for continuity.

  • UK processors/retail: Prioritise cut-plan optimisation and promo calendars to avoid over-committing scarce grades.

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