Market Pulse: Bulgaria’s food prices tick up; Romania’s pig herd shrinks; EU industry reacts to China tariffs; UK poultry’s £8.5bn footprint
Bulgarian meat/dairy prices edge higher, Romania reports a smaller pig herd, EU pork voices respond to China’s tariffs, and new data highlights the UK poultry sector’s economic heft.
Bulgaria: Weekly data show meats and dairy pricier mid-September
What happened: Bulgaria’s weekly retail review points to higher prices for meat, yogurt and cheese as of 15 September. Poultry prices also edged up in the prior week’s official basket snapshot.
Why it matters: Persistent retail firmness keeps margin pressure on processors and wholesalers and can slow promotional volumes; it also nudges consumers toward cheaper cuts and poultry.
Implications & suggested actions:
Processors/wholesalers (BG): Revisit SKU mix and pack sizes (smaller packs/value cuts) for Q4 promotions; pre-agree substitution rules with retail buyers.
Exporters into BG: Expect tighter buyer targets on landed costs; consider mixed-pallet programs to protect basket price points.
Romania: Official figures show pig herd down YoY
What happened: Romania’s pig population on 1 May 2025 was down 3.2% YoY (breeding herd −4.1%), per INS data published 16 September.
Why it matters: A smaller herd tightens local slaughter availability into late-2025, which can support prices but constrain packers’ utilization and export offers on certain cuts.
Implications & suggested actions:
Romanian packers: Secure contract hogs and review kill schedules ahead of holiday demand; lock in rendering/logistics to avoid bottlenecks.
EU traders: Monitor RO demand for imported primals/processing meat; consider forward offers with logistics included (DDP) to simplify buyer uptake.
EU pork & offal: Sector pushback after China’s provisional duties
What happened: Following China’s preliminary anti-dumping tariffs (up to 62.4%) on EU pork effective 10 September, industry groups (e.g., UECBV) flagged risks to carcass balance and offal values; Reuters framed the squeeze on exposed exporters (ES, NL, DK, FR).
Why it matters: China is a crucial outlet for EU pork—especially offal. Displaced volume will test alternate markets and pressure prices on by-products that are harder to place.
Implications & suggested actions:
EU exporters: Prioritise MENA/ASEAN for offal and secondary cuts; tailor specs and payment terms to accelerate trials.
Buyers outside China: Expect near-term offers on ears/feet/maws and some frozen cuts; leverage this window but check plant capacities and shelf-life.
Meat Borsa users: Use targeted listings to match offal supply with non-China demand; deploy our spec-matching and alert tools to surface buyers quickly.
Related Meat Borsa coverage last week: “China’s New Tariffs on EU Pork.” If you need a primer and the duty bands by exporter, start here.
China Tariff Webinar - Join us for a review and discussion of the Chinese tariffs, and how to respond.
UK: Poultry sector’s 2023 GVA pegged at £8.5bn
What happened: New analysis (published 15 September) estimates the UK poultry meat industry contributed £8.5bn GVA to GDP in 2023, with £2.8bn generated directly and the remainder via supply chains and wages.
Why it matters: The scale underscores why UK retailers and foodservice remain aggressive on poultry procurement even as broader grocery inflation cools only marginally.
Implications & suggested actions:
EU exporters targeting UK: Maintain competitive offers on fixed-weight chicken SKUs; align to UK retailer specs and audit calendars to win Q4 volumes.
UK suppliers: Use the sector-impact narrative in commercial talks; ring-fence labour and transport contingencies as peak season approaches.
Sources
Novinite – “Weekly Food Review: Meat, Yogurt, and Cheese Up…” (15 Sep 2025)
ACTMedia – “Existing pig population, down 3.2% on May 1 2025” (16 Sep 2025)
Reuters – “China’s retaliatory tariffs to squeeze EU pork producers” (10 Sep 2025)
UkrAgroConsult (Poultry World) – “British poultry business contributes billions…” (15 Sep 2025)
Food & Drink International Forum – “UK poultry industry drives £8.5 billion in economic value” (15 Sep 2025)
Reuters – “UK grocery inflation edges lower…” (16 Sep 2025)
Meat Borsa – “China’s New Tariffs on EU Pork” (published 6 days ago)