Easter 2025 Brings Rising Costs for Meat, Eggs, and Seasonal Staples

Sector Snapshot: A Costlier Easter Signals Broader Industry Challenges

Easter 2025 has arrived with significant cost implications for UK retailers and suppliers alike. What was once a reliable seasonal sales opportunity is now complicated by price inflation, ingredient shortages, and evolving consumer expectations. Core seasonal products—from lamb and eggs to chocolate and baked goods—are all reflecting mounting upstream pressures, challenging margins and testing brand loyalty.

Lamb Prices Continue Upward Trajectory Amid Tight Supply

Lamb remains a traditional centerpiece of Easter meals, but its affordability is waning. The average supermarket price of a leg of lamb has risen to £13.94/kg, marking a 10% increase year-on-year, and nearly 27% over two years, according to Assosia. The combination of reduced slaughter volumes and sustained consumer demand has contributed to tighter supply and a more premium market position for lamb.

According to the British Retail Consortium, slaughter numbers declined throughout 2022 and 2023, while demand remained relatively inelastic. This mismatch is resulting in upward pricing pressure across both retail and foodservice sectors.

Chocolate Faces Shrinkflation and Input Volatility

Chocolate manufacturers are navigating volatile cocoa markets by shrinking pack sizes while maintaining or increasing retail prices—a tactic increasingly referred to as "shrinkflation." Cocoa prices, driven by poor harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast, have fluctuated dramatically, recently rebounding to over £6,200 per tonne.

Consumer group Which? highlights multiple cases of notable unit price increases. A Twix white chocolate Easter egg, for example, rose from £5 to £6 while shrinking from 316g to 258g, reflecting a 47% increase per 100g. These moves are designed to protect margins, but they risk eroding consumer trust if not clearly communicated or balanced with value-add propositions.

Dairy Inputs Drive Up Costs for Baked Goods

Hot cross buns—a seasonal bakery staple—have not escaped inflation. The average price for a four-pack of premium variants has risen by 12% year-on-year, now standing at £1.71. Meanwhile, butter prices have increased sharply due to tighter stocks and a spike in Irish butter prices. Wholesale prices for unsalted butter are now up 28% year-on-year at £6,250 per tonne.

Jose Saiz, dairy market analyst at Expana, attributes the surge to higher input costs (notably energy and raw milk) and reduced domestic production in favor of more profitable exports.

Egg Market Disruption: Disease and Policy Drive Volatility

The egg category is experiencing compounded stress. Prices have climbed 10–15% over the past year, influenced by avian flu outbreaks, policy discussions around cage-free transitions, and labor and feed inflation. Retail prices have surpassed £1 per egg in some areas, driven in part by export demand and reduced domestic laying hen populations.

While Poland remains a net exporter of cage-produced eggs, much of the free-range segment is being imported, which further elevates domestic costs. The outlook suggests sustained pricing pressure as producers continue to navigate regulatory and logistical challenges.

Implications for Retailers and Suppliers

The cumulative effect of these price increases is reshaping Easter purchasing patterns and product mix strategies. Retailers may need to:

Reassess promotion plans to balance unit volume and value recovery.
Communicate shrinkflation clearly, or offset with innovation and perceived value.
Diversify sourcing where feasible to mitigate single-origin risk exposure, especially in chocolate and dairy.
Plan inventory proactively in categories with known seasonal surges and tight availability.

For suppliers, the focus remains on managing volatility, maintaining consumer trust, and collaborating with retailers on price-sensitive pack configurations and promotional mechanics.

Conclusion

Easter 2025 serves as a microcosm of broader challenges facing the UK food sector: input volatility, changing consumer behavior, and the balancing act between cost control and value delivery. As brands and retailers prepare for future seasonal peaks, agility and transparency will be critical to navigating the shifting landscape.

Sources: