Brief Analysis of the Chinese Pork Market
Executive Summary
The Chinese pork market is characterised by significant production growth, increasing consumer demand for product safety and quality, and the backdrop of potential disruption from geopolitically motivated imposition of new tariffs on imports from the EU. In 2023, China achieved record-breaking pork production of 58 million tons, representing a 4.6% increase from 2022. Recovery from African Swine Fever and rising environmental concerns are also shaping the market. Sustainability and environmental concerns are present, but still in the emergent phase. These factors collectively influence both domestic production strategies and global trade dynamics, and global pork manufacturers should take note.
Record Domestic Production
In 2023, China achieved a record-breaking pork production of 58 million tons, highlighting the country's efforts to achieve greater self-sufficiency. This increase is driven by government initiatives and technological advancements aimed at stabilising prices and ensuring a consistent supply.
Health and Safety Concerns
Food safety scandals and health concerns have significantly influenced consumer behaviour. Consumers have two specific concerns regarding pork which is depressing demand:
Competition from Beef and Poultry
Beef and Poultry are considered leaner and healthier meat options, and both beef and poultry demand have grown faster than demand for pork. In a recent survey by McKinsey, 28% of those surveyed reported that they plan to reduce pork consumption.
African Swine Fever (ASF) Recovery
The pork market is still recovering from the African Swine Fever outbreak, which decimated pig populations and led to significant supply disruptions. Consumer confidence is still recovering as well, and with increasing availability of beef and poultry, many consumers may not resume their previous pork consumption preferences.
Geopolitical Tension
China's pork trade dynamics are evolving as the country navigates its wider relationship with its historic trading partners. Pork exports from the EU have recently been caught in the crossfire from mooted tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicle exports to the EU. The imposition of tariffs or other trade barriers to reduce the exports of pork from the EU to China would significantly impact the supply, pricing, and overall market dynamics.
Sustainability Not a Primary Concern
There is a rising awareness of the environmental impact of pork production, including issues related to waste management and emissions, however it should be noted that Chinese consumers do not rate sustainability related issues as highly as their western peers when deciding how to spend their money.
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