Market Pulse: UK HPAI Outbreaks, Spanish Pork Price Slide, and Ukrainian Poultry Pivots from EU
Published 2 days ago in News

Market Pulse: UK HPAI Outbreaks, Spanish Pork Price Slide, and Ukrainian Poultry Pivots from EU

More cases of Avian Flu confirmed in England and Scotland, Spain's pork price continues its freefall, and Ukrainian poultry producers redirect exports away from the EU.

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Bo Pedersen
Chief Revenue Officer

UK: HPAI Confirmed at Large Commercial Units in England and Scotland

What happened: The HPAI (Avian Flu) situation has escalated with new cases confirmed on November 12 at large commercial poultry units. According to GOV.UK, HPAI H5N1 was identified at a large commercial premises near Woodbridge, Suffolk (England) and at another large commercial flock near Lanark, South Lanarkshire (Scotland). A 3km Protection Zone and 10km Surveillance Zone have been declared around each site, and all birds on the premises will be humanely culled.

Why it matters: This is a significant escalation from sporadic backyard cases. Outbreaks in large commercial units signal the virus is now a major and immediate financial threat to the industry. This will trigger wider "housing orders" and create immediate, severe supply chain disruptions and financial losses for the producers involved and the surrounding regions.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • UK Poultry Producers: The threat level is now critical. If you are not already under a mandatory housing order, implement it voluntarily. Enforce 'lockdown' biosecurity and forbid all non-essential site visits.

  • EU Poultry Buyers/Processors: Expect an immediate tightening of UK poultry supply and potential price spikes. Be prepared for product (especially from Suffolk and Lanarkshire) to be delayed or cancelled. Activate secondary suppliers from unaffected regions.

  • Traders: Monitor the Defra and Scottish Government daily outbreak map. This will impact inter-company trade and may lead to other countries imposing regional import restrictions on UK poultry.

Spain: Pork Price Slide Continues, Hitting New Low

What happened: Spain's benchmark pork price (Mercolleida) has continued its freefall, dropping again on November 6 to €1.36/kg, as reported by Pig333.com. This marks another week in a sustained price crash that has completely wiped out producer profitability.

Why it matters: This is a severe downturn for the EU's largest pork producer. The price collapse is being driven by a saturated intra-EU market, weak domestic demand, and an inability to move sufficient volumes to third countries at a better price. This situation is now dragging down the entire EU pork complex, putting intense pressure on prices in Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • Spanish Producers: The market is now deep below the cost of production. Expect further financial distress and consolidation. The only option is to secure export contracts, even at low margins, simply to move volume.

  • EU Pork Buyers/Processors: This is an exceptionally strong purchasing window for Spanish pork. Secure volumes now, but be aware that these prices are unsustainable. Any market intervention or culling scheme could trigger a sharp price reversal.

  • German/Dutch Producers: The Spanish price crash is a direct threat. Expect your slaughterhouses to use the low Spanish price as leverage to demand lower prices for your own pigs.

Ukraine: Poultry Producers Pivot Exports Away from EU

What happened: Ukrainian poultry producers are actively redirecting exports to the Middle East, the UK, and Africa, according to a USDA FAS report published on November 11. This strategic pivot is a direct response to the EU's decision to revert to pre-war Autonomous Trade Measure (ATM) quota levels, which is set to take effect in June 2026.

Why it matters: Ukraine, which had become the world's sixth-largest poultry exporter, will now compete far more aggressively in key non-EU markets. For the EU, this signals the end of the high-volume, low-cost poultry inflows that have helped balance the market, which will likely lead to tighter supplies and firmer prices within the bloc next year.

Implications & suggested actions:

  • EU Poultry Buyers/Processors: Your window for sourcing large, flexible volumes of Ukrainian poultry is closing. Secure 2026 contracts now or begin actively sourcing more from within the EU (e.g., Poland, France) or from South America to fill the anticipated gap.

  • EU Poultry Producers: This is a positive market signal. The reduction in competition from Ukrainian imports will provide significant price support and market stability starting in mid-2026.

  • Traders (Middle East/Africa): Prepare for a new, major competitor. Expect increased and aggressive offers from Ukrainian producers, which will create downward price pressure and challenge incumbent suppliers from Brazil, Turkey, and the US.

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